Football · Iceland Premier League · 24/10, 16:00
Prediction: Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik
Team pages: Stjarnan · Valur Reykjavik
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.42Total
Stjarnan2.25
Valur Reykjavik2.17
1X2
Stjarnan
Draw
Valur Reykjavik
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-2 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Stjarnan
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Valur Reykjavik
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stjarnan
3–3
Valur Reykjavik
(6 last)
- Valur Reykjavik2-3Stjarnan
- Stjarnan2-4Valur Reykjavik
- Valur Reykjavik3-2Stjarnan
- Valur Reykjavik1-2Stjarnan
- Valur Reykjavik3-1Stjarnan
- Stjarnan3-2Valur Reykjavik
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valur Reykjavik (rating 1470 vs 1514).
- High corners: 14.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 2 | 2.5 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 1.2 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.9 / 7 | 3 / 7.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stjarnan 3–0–3 Valur Reykjavik
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/26 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 27/04/26 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 2-4 HT 2-2 | Valur Reykjavik |
| 04/10/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 14/09/25 Iceland Premier League | Valur Reykjavik | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Stjarnan |
| 01/07/25 Iceland Cup | Valur Reykjavik | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Stjarnan |
| 14/06/25 Iceland Premier League | Stjarnan | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Valur Reykjavik |
Standings · Iceland Premier League · Besta deild 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valur Reykjavik | 26 | 10 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 53 | 34 |
| 2 | Stjarnan | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 47 | 61 | 31 |
| 3 | FH Hafnarfjordur | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 41 | 47 | 30 |
| 4 | Thor Akureyri | 26 | 8 | 3 | 15 | 27 | 58 | 27 |
| 5 | KA Akureyri | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 42 | 55 | 26 |
| 6 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 26 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 36 | 50 | 22 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stjarnan | Valur Reykjavik |
|---|---|---|
| Thor Akureyri | 1-3 L | 4-1 W |
| KA Akureyri | 0-3 L | 4-1 W |
| FH Hafnarfjordur | 2-5 L | 3-5 L |
| IBV Vestmannaeyjar | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Breidablik | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Keflavik | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Valur Reykjavik (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stjarnan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-4 | 2-5 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 13/09 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 06/09 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 17/08 | Fram Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 09/08 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 03/08 | Valur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
Valur Reykjavik
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 10/10 | FH Hafnarfjordur Iceland Premier League |
0-3 | 3-5 | 13 | 2 | L |
| 20/09 | IBV Vestmannaeyjar Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 13/09 | Thor Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Keflavik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | IA Akranes Iceland Premier League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 14 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Vikingur Reykjavik Iceland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 17/08 | KA Akureyri Iceland Premier League |
1-3 | 4-4 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 09/08 | Breidablik Iceland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Stjarnan Iceland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stjarnan win (41%). Probabilities: Stjarnan 41%, draw 21%, Valur Reykjavik 38%.
How many goals are expected in Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik?
The model expects 4.42 goals (Stjarnan 2.25 · Valur Reykjavik 2.17), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Stjarnan vs Valur Reykjavik?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.