Football · Uruguay Segunda · 13/09, 17:30

Prediction: CA River Plate vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Team pages: CA River Plate · Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

CA River Plate1.23

Atletico Fenix Montevideo1.21

1X2

36% 29% 35%

CA River Plate Draw Atletico Fenix Montevideo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CA River Plate 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWDDL

Atletico Fenix Montevideo 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDLWDL

Head-to-head

CA River Plate 2–2–2 Atletico Fenix Montevideo (6 last)

Atletico Fenix Montevideo3-1CA River Plate
CA River Plate4-3Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo1-0CA River Plate
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-0CA River Plate
CA River Plate1-0Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Atletico Fenix Montevideo0-0CA River Plate

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA River Plate 1534 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1483

	CA River Plate	Draw	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	29%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CA River Plate (rating 1534 vs 1483).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA River Plate	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/56/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.4	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.2	6.7 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.10

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.68 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.69

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:28 +20’	2.50	3.10	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:01 +42’	2.68	2.89	2.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA River Plate 2–2–2 Atletico Fenix Montevideo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Uruguay Segunda	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	3-1 HT 1-1	CA River Plate
29/09/24 Uruguay Clausura	CA River Plate	4-3 HT 2-1	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
07/07/24 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	1-0 HT 1-0	CA River Plate
16/03/24 Uruguay Apertura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	CA River Plate
16/11/23 Uruguay Clausura	CA River Plate	1-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
08/04/23 Uruguay Apertura	Atletico Fenix Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	CA River Plate

Standings · Uruguay Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club Oriental	6	4	1	1	8	5	13
2	Plaza Colonia	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
3	Colon FC	6	2	3	1	8	5	9
4	Rentistas	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
5	Miramar Misiones	6	1	2	3	3	7	5
6	Paysandu FC	6	1	1	4	4	7	4
7	CA River Plate	6	1	1	4	6	13	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA River Plate	Atletico Fenix Montevideo
CA Atenas	2-3 L	1-0 W
Rentistas	0-0 D	1-2 L
Paysandu FC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Miramar Misiones	3-0 W	1-1 D
Huracan DPA	2-0 W	2-0 W
Tacuarembo	0-1 L	2-0 W
Uruguay Montevideo	1-1 D	2-3 L
Plaza Colonia	3-2 W	1-4 L
La Luz	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CA River Plate (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA River Plate

DWWDLWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
30/08	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	8	6	D
22/08	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
15/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	0-0	3-0	1	4	W
09/08	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
02/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/07	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	7	6	D
11/07	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
05/07	Club Oriental Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
28/06	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Atletico Fenix Montevideo

LWLWDDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Rentistas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-2	9	8	L
30/08	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	6	7	D
23/08	Tacuarembo Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	1	15	W
16/08	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Segunda	1-3	1-4	3	7	L
08/08	La Luz Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
02/08	Cerrito Uruguay Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
26/07	CA Atenas Uruguay Segunda	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
14/07	Paysandu FC Uruguay Segunda	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
05/07	Huracan DPA Uruguay Segunda	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
27/06	Uruguay Montevideo Uruguay Segunda	2-1	2-3	9	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA River Plate vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA River Plate win (36%). Probabilities: CA River Plate 36%, draw 29%, Atletico Fenix Montevideo 35%.

How many goals are expected in CA River Plate vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model expects 2.44 goals (CA River Plate 1.23 · Atletico Fenix Montevideo 1.21), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA River Plate vs Atletico Fenix Montevideo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.