Football · China Division 2 · 12/09, 10:00

Prediction: Shanghai Port Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan

Team pages: Shanghai Port Reserves · Jiangxi Lushan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.33Total

Shanghai Port Reserves1.35

Jiangxi Lushan0.98

1X2

45% 29% 26%

Shanghai Port Reserves Draw Jiangxi Lushan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Shanghai Port Reserves 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLLW

Jiangxi Lushan 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Shanghai Port Reserves 0–2 Jiangxi Lushan (2 last)

Shanghai Port Reserves0-1Jiangxi Lushan
Jiangxi Lushan1-0Shanghai Port Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shanghai Port Reserves 1497 · Jiangxi Lushan 1516

	Shanghai Port Reserves	Draw	Jiangxi Lushan
Our model	44%	30%	26%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jiangxi Lushan: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shanghai Port Reserves	Jiangxi Lushan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 4	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +6’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shanghai Port Reserves 0–0–2 Jiangxi Lushan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/25 China Division 2	Shanghai Port Reserves	0-1 HT 0-1	Jiangxi Lushan
05/04/25 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	1-0 HT 0-0	Shanghai Port Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	22	13	3	6	32	17	42
2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	22	12	5	5	33	21	41
3	Shanghai Port Reserves	22	12	4	6	36	19	40
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	22	12	4	6	29	17	40
5	Shenzhen 2028	22	10	7	5	37	25	37
6	Dalian Kewei	22	9	10	3	22	14	37
7	Jiangxi Lushan	22	10	5	7	25	19	35
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	22	8	10	4	25	28	34

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shanghai Port Reserves

DLWWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
15/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	8	L
08/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-3	1-3	4	3	L
05/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
01/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	1	W
26/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-1	2-3	3	1	L
18/07	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-0	2-0	0	6	W
04/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	4-1	5-1	9	1	W
27/06	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
23/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-2	2-2	3	4	D

Jiangxi Lushan

WWLDLDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
16/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
08/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
19/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
28/06	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	2-0	2-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shanghai Port Reserves win (45%). Probabilities: Shanghai Port Reserves 45%, draw 29%, Jiangxi Lushan 26%.

How many goals are expected in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model expects 2.33 goals (Shanghai Port Reserves 1.35 · Jiangxi Lushan 0.98), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shanghai Port Reserves vs Jiangxi Lushan?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.