Football · China Division 2 · 19/09, 13:00

Prediction: Ganzhou Ruishi vs Qingdao Red Lions

Team pages: Ganzhou Ruishi · Qingdao Red Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.26Total

Ganzhou Ruishi0.84

Qingdao Red Lions1.42

1X2

21% 29% 50%

Ganzhou Ruishi Draw Qingdao Red Lions

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ganzhou Ruishi 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDDDLDLLLL

Qingdao Red Lions 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLWDWDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ganzhou Ruishi 1438 · Qingdao Red Lions 1515

	Ganzhou Ruishi	Draw	Qingdao Red Lions
Our model	21%	30%	49%
Market	21%	29%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Qingdao Red Lions (rating 1438 vs 1515).
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ganzhou Ruishi	Qingdao Red Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	2.1 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.10

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:27 +9’	4.20	3.10	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tai'an Tiankuang	23	8	8	7	25	23	32
2	Xiamen Feilu	23	7	8	8	29	29	29
3	Qingdao Red Lions	23	6	10	7	23	20	28
4	Nantong Haimen Codion	23	5	12	6	26	24	27
5	Ganzhou Ruishi	23	6	8	9	19	33	26
6	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	23	5	8	10	19	25	23
7	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	23	4	8	11	20	26	20
8	Beijing Institute	23	4	7	12	22	42	19

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ganzhou Ruishi	Qingdao Red Lions
Beijing Institute	0-1 L	6-1 W
Xiamen Feilu	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Qingdao Red Lions (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ganzhou Ruishi

WDDDLDLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
23/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-2	0-4	2	5	L
16/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	0	L
08/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-2	0-6	4	2	L
01/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
25/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-2	0-3	1	1	L
18/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
04/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	4-4	2	0	D
28/06	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	1-0	0	4	W

Qingdao Red Lions

WDLLWDWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
19/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
15/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
01/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	3-0	6-1	2	1	W
19/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
05/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
27/06	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ganzhou Ruishi vs Qingdao Red Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Qingdao Red Lions win (50%). Probabilities: Ganzhou Ruishi 21%, draw 29%, Qingdao Red Lions 50%.

How many goals are expected in Ganzhou Ruishi vs Qingdao Red Lions?

The model expects 2.26 goals (Ganzhou Ruishi 0.84 · Qingdao Red Lions 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Ganzhou Ruishi vs Qingdao Red Lions?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.