Football · China Division 2 · 19/09, 11:00

Prediction: Dalian Kewei vs Shenzhen 2028

Team pages: Dalian Kewei · Shenzhen 2028

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.25Total

Dalian Kewei1.32

Shenzhen 20280.93

1X2

44% 30% 25%

Dalian Kewei Draw Shenzhen 2028

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Dalian Kewei 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDDWLW

Shenzhen 2028 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLWDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dalian Kewei 1526 · Shenzhen 2028 1535

	Dalian Kewei	Draw	Shenzhen 2028
Our model	44%	31%	25%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dalian Kewei	Shenzhen 2028
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.88

Under 21.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:22 +12’	2.00	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	23	13	4	6	37	19	43
2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	23	13	3	7	32	18	42
3	Shandong Taishan Reserves	23	12	6	5	33	21	42
4	Shenzhen 2028	23	11	7	5	38	25	40
5	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	23	12	4	7	29	18	40
6	Dalian Kewei	23	10	10	3	23	14	40
7	Jiangxi Lushan	23	10	5	8	25	20	35
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	23	8	11	4	25	28	35

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dalian Kewei	Shenzhen 2028
Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	1-0 W	0-1 L
Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dalian Kewei

WLDWWDDWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
15/08	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
09/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-2	2-2	5	4	D
02/08	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-2	2	1	D
25/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
18/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	12	3	W
12/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
08/07	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
04/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-1	2	6	W

Shenzhen 2028

WDDWWLWDLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
23/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
16/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	6-0	2	2	W
01/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
05/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
28/06	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dalian Kewei vs Shenzhen 2028?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dalian Kewei win (44%). Probabilities: Dalian Kewei 44%, draw 30%, Shenzhen 2028 25%.

How many goals are expected in Dalian Kewei vs Shenzhen 2028?

The model expects 2.25 goals (Dalian Kewei 1.32 · Shenzhen 2028 0.93), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Dalian Kewei vs Shenzhen 2028?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.