Football · China Division 2 · 18/09, 13:30

Prediction: Jiangxi Lushan vs Shandong Taishan Reserves

Team pages: Jiangxi Lushan · Shandong Taishan Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Jiangxi Lushan1.03

Shandong Taishan Reserves1.18

1X2

31% 31% 39%

Jiangxi Lushan Draw Shandong Taishan Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Jiangxi Lushan 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLDWWLWL

Shandong Taishan Reserves 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWLDD

Head-to-head

Jiangxi Lushan 0–2 Shandong Taishan Reserves (2 last)

Jiangxi Lushan1-3Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shandong Taishan Reserves2-0Jiangxi Lushan

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jiangxi Lushan 1507 · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1545

	Jiangxi Lushan	Draw	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Our model	30%	32%	38%
Market	31%	30%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shandong Taishan Reserves: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jiangxi Lushan	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.5 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.00

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:07 +6’	2.88	3.00	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jiangxi Lushan 0–0–2 Shandong Taishan Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/25 China Division 2	Jiangxi Lushan	1-3 HT 0-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves
26/05/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	2-0 HT 2-0	Jiangxi Lushan

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	23	13	4	6	37	19	43
2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	23	13	3	7	32	18	42
3	Shandong Taishan Reserves	22	12	5	5	33	21	41
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	22	12	4	6	29	17	40
5	Dalian Kewei	23	10	10	3	23	14	40
6	Shenzhen 2028	22	10	7	5	37	25	37
7	Jiangxi Lushan	23	10	5	8	25	20	35
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	22	8	10	4	25	28	34

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jiangxi Lushan	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shanghai Port Reserves	0-1 L	3-1 W
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shandong Taishan Reserves (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jiangxi Lushan

WLDLDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
16/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
08/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
19/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
08/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	1-2	5	4	L
05/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	1-0	2-1	2	6	W

Shandong Taishan Reserves

WWWWDDWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
08/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	3-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	2-2	9	1	D
25/07	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
04/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	2-0	3-1	2	3	W
28/06	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	14	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Shandong Taishan Reserves win (39%). Probabilities: Jiangxi Lushan 31%, draw 31%, Shandong Taishan Reserves 39%.

How many goals are expected in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Jiangxi Lushan 1.03 · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.18), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Jiangxi Lushan vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.