Football · China Division 2 · 12/09, 11:00

Prediction: Hubei Istar vs Changchun Xidu

Team pages: Hubei Istar · Changchun Xidu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Hubei Istar1.24

Changchun Xidu0.88

1X2

44% 30% 26%

Hubei Istar Draw Changchun Xidu

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hubei Istar 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDDLLLW

Changchun Xidu 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDLLDW

Head-to-head

Hubei Istar 0–2 Changchun Xidu (2 last)

Changchun Xidu1-0Hubei Istar
Hubei Istar1-3Changchun Xidu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hubei Istar 1501 · Changchun Xidu 1484

	Hubei Istar	Draw	Changchun Xidu
Our model	43%	32%	25%
Market	45%	29%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Changchun Xidu: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hubei Istar	Changchun Xidu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.8	0.8 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0.1	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.75

Under 22.05

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +7’	2.00	3.10	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubei Istar 0–0–2 Changchun Xidu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/06/25 China Division 2	Changchun Xidu	1-0 HT 1-0	Hubei Istar
23/03/25 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-3 HT 0-1	Changchun Xidu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	22	9	7	6	29	23	34
2	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	22	6	10	6	21	22	28
3	Guangdong Mingtu	22	5	11	6	22	20	26
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	22	4	14	4	13	16	26
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	22	6	7	9	22	28	25
6	Wenzhou FC	22	4	10	8	15	23	22
7	Changchun Xidu	22	3	11	8	15	28	20
8	Shanghai Segenda	22	2	9	11	22	39	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hubei Istar

DWDWDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
16/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
08/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
05/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
01/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-4	0	0	D
27/06	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	6	W
23/06	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Changchun Xidu

DDWLDDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
25/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
05/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	1-0	1	7	W
27/06	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
23/06	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hubei Istar vs Changchun Xidu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hubei Istar win (44%). Probabilities: Hubei Istar 44%, draw 30%, Changchun Xidu 26%.

How many goals are expected in Hubei Istar vs Changchun Xidu?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Hubei Istar 1.24 · Changchun Xidu 0.88), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Hubei Istar vs Changchun Xidu?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.