Football · China Division 2 · 18/09, 10:00

Prediction: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Wenzhou FC

Team pages: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic · Wenzhou FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.72Total

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1.08

Wenzhou FC0.64

1X2

46% 32% 21%

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic Draw Wenzhou FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 53% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDDWDWDW

Wenzhou FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLDDWW

Head-to-head

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1–2–1 Wenzhou FC (4 last)

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1-0Wenzhou FC
Wenzhou FC0-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Wenzhou FC2-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1-1Wenzhou FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1532 · Wenzhou FC 1486

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Draw	Wenzhou FC
Our model	45%	35%	20%
Market	47%	30%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 1.72 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (rating 1532 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Wenzhou FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	0.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:57 +13’	1.91	3.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1–2–1 Wenzhou FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/10/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	1-0 HT 1-0	Wenzhou FC
31/08/25 China Division 2	Wenzhou FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
28/09/24 China Division 2	Wenzhou FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
25/08/24 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	1-1 HT 0-0	Wenzhou FC

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	23	9	7	7	30	25	34
2	Guangdong Mingtu	23	6	11	6	23	20	29
3	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	22	6	10	6	21	22	28
4	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	22	4	14	4	13	16	26
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	22	6	7	9	22	28	25
6	Changchun Xidu	23	4	11	8	17	29	23
7	Wenzhou FC	22	4	10	8	15	23	22
8	Shanghai Segenda	23	2	9	12	22	40	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

LDDDDWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
22/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	8	W
09/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
05/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
01/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
19/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
04/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-2	1-3	6	3	L

Wenzhou FC

LDLDDLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
16/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
09/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
01/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
25/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
18/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	1-2	16	2	L
05/07	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
28/06	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-1	0-1	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Wenzhou FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic win (46%). Probabilities: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 46%, draw 32%, Wenzhou FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Wenzhou FC?

The model expects 1.72 goals (Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1.08 · Wenzhou FC 0.64), with a 51% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Wenzhou FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.