Prediction: Toluca vs Santos Laguna
Team pages: Toluca · Santos Laguna
- Toluca3-1Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna2-4Toluca
- Toluca2-1Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna2-0Toluca
- Toluca1-0Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna3-1Toluca
| Toluca | Draw | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 10% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1577 vs 1436).
- H2H favours Toluca: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.8 | 3.8 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.5 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 4–0–2 Santos Laguna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/26 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-1 HT 0-1 | Santos Laguna |
| 17/07/25 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 2-4 HT 2-1 | Toluca |
| 07/04/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 23/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Toluca |
| 22/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 06/11/23 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Toluca |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toluca | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Chivas Guadalajara | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Club America | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 14 | 15 |
| 5 | Puebla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 14 |
| 6 | Queretaro | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Leon | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 8 | Tijuana | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 13 |
| 9 | Atlas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 14 | 13 |
| 10 | Pachuca | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Unam Pumas | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 12 | 11 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 13 | Necaxa | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 8 |
| 14 | Atlante | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 8 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 7 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 4 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 3 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas | 5-2 W | 0-1 L |
| Juarez FC | 4-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Chivas Guadalajara | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Santos Laguna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 07/09 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 6 | D |
| 23/08 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/08 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/08 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (74%). Probabilities: Toluca 74%, draw 17%, Santos Laguna 9%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Toluca 2.37 · Santos Laguna 0.73), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.