Football · Mexico Liga MX · 21/09, 02:00

Prediction: Pachuca vs Tijuana

Team pages: Pachuca · Tijuana

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Pachuca1.63
Tijuana0.95
1X2
52% 27% 21%
Pachuca Draw Tijuana
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Pachuca 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
WLWLLLDDWW
Tijuana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DWDWWDWLWL
Head-to-head
Pachuca 3–3 Tijuana (6 last)
  • Tijuana3-1Pachuca
  • Pachuca0-2Tijuana
  • Pachuca4-1Tijuana
  • Tijuana2-1Pachuca
  • Pachuca3-2Tijuana
  • Tijuana2-3Pachuca
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pachuca 1521 · Tijuana 1508
PachucaDrawTijuana
Our model52%27%21%
Market53%26%21%
Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

PachucaTijuana
Goals for / against (FT)1.4 / 0.91.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.40.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/30/30%20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.5 / 4.81.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.5 / 0.34.2 / 0.4

Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca 303 Tijuana

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DateHomeScoreAway
23/04/26
Mexico Liga MX
Tijuana3-1
HT 2-0
Pachuca
17/08/25
Mexico Liga MX
Pachuca0-2
HT 0-2
Tijuana
17/03/25
Mexico Liga MX
Pachuca4-1
HT 2-0
Tijuana
05/10/24
Mexico Liga MX
Tijuana2-1
HT 0-0
Pachuca
04/02/24
Mexico Liga MX
Pachuca3-2
HT 2-1
Tijuana
11/11/23
Mexico Liga MX
Tijuana2-3
HT 1-0
Pachuca

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Toluca 8611 18619
2 Chivas Guadalajara 8521 15617
3 Club America 7511 15616
4 Cruz Azul 8503 161415
5 Puebla 9423 111114
6 Queretaro 7412 10713
7 Leon 8413 11913
8 Tijuana 7412 10813
9 Atlas 8413 121413
10 Pachuca 8323 13811
11 Unam Pumas 8323 111211
12 Monterrey 7313 131010
13 Necaxa 8224 9138
14 Atlante 9153 8138
15 Tigres UANL 9144 9137
16 Atletico San Luis 8134 8156
17 Santos Laguna 8116 6134
18 Juarez FC 9108 6233

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentPachucaTijuana
Chivas Guadalajara 1-1 D 2-5 L
Atletico San Luis 1-1 D 0-0 D
Leon 0-1 L 1-0 W
Queretaro 1-2 L 0-1 L
Unam Pumas 3-0 W 2-0 W
Record vs common 1 W 2 D 2 L 2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Pachuca (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pachuca

WLWLLLDDWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
12/09 Atlante
Mexico Liga MX
3-0 3-0 56 W
05/09 Juarez FC
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 2-0 310 W
30/08 Chivas Guadalajara
Mexico Liga MX
0-1 1-1 84 D
24/08 Atletico San Luis
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 1-1 43 D
18/08 Puebla
Mexico Liga MX
1-2 2-3 50 L
02/08 Leon
Mexico Liga MX
0-1 0-1 612 L
27/07 Queretaro
Mexico Liga MX
1-0 1-2 15 L
19/07 Unam Pumas
Mexico Liga MX
2-0 3-0 41 W
18/05 Unam Pumas
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 0-1 33 L
15/05 Unam Pumas
Mexico Liga MX
1-0 1-0 94 W

Tijuana

DWDWWDWLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
12/09 Queretaro
Mexico Liga MX
0-1 0-1 135 L
29/08 Unam Pumas
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 2-0 33 W
23/08 Chivas Guadalajara
Mexico Liga MX
0-3 2-5 44 L
17/08 Cruz Azul
Mexico Liga MX
1-1 2-1 56 W
01/08 Atletico San Luis
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 0-0 13 D
25/07 Leon
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 1-0 32 W
17/07 Tigres UANL
Mexico Liga MX
1-0 3-1 17 W
26/04 Chivas Guadalajara
Mexico Liga MX
0-0 0-0 24 D
23/04 Pachuca
Mexico Liga MX
2-0 3-1 68 W
19/04 Cruz Azul
Mexico Liga MX
1-1 1-1 14 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pachuca vs Tijuana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Pachuca win (52%). Probabilities: Pachuca 52%, draw 27%, Tijuana 21%.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Tijuana?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Pachuca 1.63 · Tijuana 0.95), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Tijuana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.