Football · Mexico Liga MX · 20/09, 03:00

Prediction: Monterrey vs Cruz Azul

Team pages: Monterrey · Cruz Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Monterrey1.46

Cruz Azul1.75

1X2

31% 25% 43%

Monterrey Draw Cruz Azul

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Monterrey 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWWLLD

Cruz Azul 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

Monterrey 0–2–4 Cruz Azul (6 last)

Cruz Azul1-1Monterrey
Monterrey2-3Cruz Azul
Monterrey0-2Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-0Monterrey
Cruz Azul1-1Monterrey
Monterrey0-4Cruz Azul

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruz Azul (rating 1477 vs 1575).
H2H favours Cruz Azul: 4-2-0.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monterrey	Cruz Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.4	3.3 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.86

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:21

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.34 → 2.34	Pinn 2.34
X	3.59 → 3.59	Pinn 3.59
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:29 +412’	2.34	3.59	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterrey 0–2–4 Cruz Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 CONCACAF Champions Cup	Cruz Azul	1-1 HT 0-1	Monterrey
11/03/26 CONCACAF Champions Cup	Monterrey	2-3 HT 2-1	Cruz Azul
01/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	0-2 HT 0-1	Cruz Azul
26/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-0 HT 1-0	Monterrey
09/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-1 HT 1-1	Monterrey
14/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	0-4 HT 0-2	Cruz Azul

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Toluca	7	5	1	1	17	6	16
2	Club America	7	5	1	1	15	6	16
3	Cruz Azul	8	5	0	3	16	14	15
4	Chivas Guadalajara	7	4	2	1	12	6	14
5	Queretaro	7	4	1	2	10	7	13
6	Tijuana	7	4	1	2	10	8	13
7	Puebla	7	4	1	2	10	9	13
8	Atlas	8	4	1	3	12	14	13
9	Pachuca	8	3	2	3	13	8	11
10	Unam Pumas	7	3	2	2	11	9	11
11	Monterrey	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
12	Leon	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
13	Necaxa	8	2	2	4	9	13	8
14	Tigres UANL	8	1	4	3	9	11	7
15	Atlante	8	1	4	3	7	12	7
16	Atletico San Luis	7	1	3	3	8	13	6
17	Santos Laguna	7	0	1	6	4	12	1
18	Juarez FC	7	0	0	7	3	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monterrey	Cruz Azul
Atletico San Luis	1-3 L	3-2 W
Atlas	2-0 W	0-2 L
Necaxa	1-2 L	3-1 W
Santos Laguna	3-2 W	1-0 W
Puebla	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cruz Azul (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monterrey

LWLWLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
31/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	14	3	L
22/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W
27/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
22/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-3	7	6	L

Cruz Azul

DWWWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-3	6	7	W
07/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
22/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	3-2	4	3	W
25/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
22/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	7	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruz Azul win (43%). Probabilities: Monterrey 31%, draw 25%, Cruz Azul 43%.

How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Monterrey 1.46 · Cruz Azul 1.75), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Cruz Azul?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.