Football · China Super League · 12/09, 13:00
Prediction: Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Liaoning Ironman
Team pages: Tianjin Jinmen Tigers · Liaoning Ironman
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.1Total
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers1.82
Liaoning Ironman1.28
1X2
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
Draw
Liaoning Ironman
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Liaoning Ironman
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
0–5–1
Liaoning Ironman
(6 last)
- Liaoning Ironman3-0Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
- Liaoning Ironman1-1Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
- Tianjin Jinmen Tigers1-1Liaoning Ironman
- Tianjin Jinmen Tigers2-2Liaoning Ironman
- Liaoning Ironman2-2Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
- Tianjin Jinmen Tigers0-0Liaoning Ironman
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 1517 · Liaoning Ironman 1451
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | Draw | Liaoning Ironman | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 25% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tianjin Jinmen Tigers (rating 1517 vs 1451).
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | Liaoning Ironman | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.2 | 2.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 0–5–1 Liaoning Ironman
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 China Super League | Liaoning Ironman | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
| 19/08/17 China Super League | Liaoning Ironman | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
| 07/05/17 China Super League | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Liaoning Ironman |
| 31/07/16 China Super League | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Liaoning Ironman |
| 16/04/16 China Super League | Liaoning Ironman | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers |
| 23/08/15 China Super League | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Liaoning Ironman |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 52 |
| 2 | Dalian Young Boy | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 38 | 42 | 40 |
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 38 |
| 4 | Yunnan Yukun | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 54 | 51 | 38 |
| 5 | Qingdao West Coast | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | 38 |
| 6 | Shandong Taishan | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 37 |
| 7 | Shanghai Port | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 40 | 33 | 33 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 46 | 31 |
| 9 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 32 | 31 |
| 10 | Zhejiang | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 42 | 28 |
| 11 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 45 | 28 |
| 12 | Henan | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 32 | 34 | 26 |
| 13 | Liaoning Ironman | 25 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 46 | 25 |
| 14 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 35 | 32 | 22 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 37 | 41 | 20 |
| 16 | Qingdao Hainiu | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | 34 | 53 | 14 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | Liaoning Ironman |
|---|---|---|
| Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Beijing Guoan | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Shandong Taishan | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Yunnan Yukun | 3-2 W | 0-5 L |
| Shanghai Shenhua | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Tianjin Jinmen Tigers (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tianjin Jinmen Tigers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 29/08 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/08 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 09/08 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 18/07 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 13 | 2 | L |
Liaoning Ironman
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/08 | Henan China Super League |
0-2 | 4-4 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 15/08 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 25/07 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 17/07 | Beijing Guoan China Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 27/06 | Shandong Taishan China Super League |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Liaoning Ironman?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tianjin Jinmen Tigers win (49%). Probabilities: Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 49%, draw 26%, Liaoning Ironman 26%.
How many goals are expected in Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Liaoning Ironman?
The model expects 3.1 goals (Tianjin Jinmen Tigers 1.82 · Liaoning Ironman 1.28), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Jinmen Tigers vs Liaoning Ironman?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.