Football · Ghana Premier League · 03/10, 17:00

Prediction: Dreams vs Hearts of Oak

Team pages: Dreams · Hearts of Oak

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.06Total

Dreams1.11

Hearts of Oak0.95

1X2

38% 32% 30%

Dreams Draw Hearts of Oak

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Dreams 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLLDL

Hearts of Oak 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDLWWWDL

Head-to-head

Dreams 1–4–1 Hearts of Oak (6 last)

Hearts of Oak0-0Dreams
Dreams0-1Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak0-1Dreams
Dreams0-0Hearts of Oak
Dreams2-2Hearts of Oak
Hearts of Oak0-0Dreams

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dreams 1505 · Hearts of Oak 1519

	Dreams	Draw	Hearts of Oak
Our model	38%	33%	30%
Market	39%	31%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dreams	Hearts of Oak
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	5 / 4.5	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.5	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.88

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 02:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30
X	2.90 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
2	3.20 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:34 +27’	2.15	2.90	3.20
02:42 +6’	2.30▲	2.88▼	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dreams 1–4–1 Hearts of Oak

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	0-0 HT 0-0	Dreams
22/09/25 Ghana Premier League	Dreams	0-1 HT 0-1	Hearts of Oak
15/03/25 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	0-1 HT 0-1	Dreams
20/10/24 Ghana Premier League	Dreams	0-0 HT 0-0	Hearts of Oak
14/03/24 Ghana Premier League	Dreams	2-2 HT 2-1	Hearts of Oak
08/10/23 Ghana Premier League	Hearts of Oak	0-0 HT 0-0	Dreams

Standings · Ghana Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Samartex	4	2	2	0	6	3	8
2	Asante Kotoko	5	2	2	1	6	6	8
3	Medeama SC	4	2	2	0	8	4	8
4	Ashanti Gold	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
5	Port City FC Ghana	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
6	Hearts of Oak	4	2	1	1	6	2	7
7	Bechem FC	4	2	1	1	3	3	7
8	Aduana Stars	4	2	1	1	4	2	7
9	Karela United FC	5	2	0	3	6	7	6
10	Basake Holy Stars FC	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
11	Heart of Lions	4	1	2	1	3	3	5
12	Swedru All Blacks Utd	4	1	2	1	2	2	5
13	Vision FC	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
14	Debibi United	4	1	1	2	6	5	4
15	Berekum Chelsea	4	1	1	2	5	8	4
16	Bibiani Gold Stars	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
17	Young Apostles	4	1	0	3	2	8	3
18	Dreams	4	0	1	3	5	9	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dreams	Hearts of Oak
Bechem FC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Medeama SC	2-2 D	4-2 W
Bibiani Gold Stars	2-3 L	2-1 W
Berekum Chelsea	1-3 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hearts of Oak (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dreams

WWWLWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
23/09	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
20/09	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	1-0	2-3	4	6	L
13/09	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
24/05	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
17/05	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	10	W
10/05	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
06/05	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
03/05	Asante Kotoko Ghana Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/04	Eleven Wonders Ghana Premier League	0-1	5-1	–	–	W

Hearts of Oak

LWDDLWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Karela United FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Bechem FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
13/09	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
24/05	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-0	4-2	1	3	W
17/05	Samartex Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
06/05	Karela United FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/05	Nations FC Ghana Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
11/04	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-1	9	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dreams vs Hearts of Oak?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dreams win (38%). Probabilities: Dreams 38%, draw 32%, Hearts of Oak 30%.

How many goals are expected in Dreams vs Hearts of Oak?

The model expects 2.06 goals (Dreams 1.11 · Hearts of Oak 0.95), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Dreams vs Hearts of Oak?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.