Football · Ghana Premier League · 11/10, 17:00

Prediction: Medeama SC vs Heart of Lions

Team pages: Medeama SC · Heart of Lions

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Medeama SC1.76

Heart of Lions0.77

1X2

60% 25% 15%

Medeama SC Draw Heart of Lions

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Medeama SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLDDWWW

Heart of Lions 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDLDWW

Head-to-head

Medeama SC 2–2–2 Heart of Lions (6 last)

Medeama SC5-2Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions0-1Medeama SC
Heart of Lions1-0Medeama SC
Medeama SC0-0Heart of Lions
Medeama SC0-1Heart of Lions
Heart of Lions2-2Medeama SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Medeama SC 1536 · Heart of Lions 1494

	Medeama SC	Draw	Heart of Lions
Our model	60%	25%	15%
Market	60%	25%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Medeama SC (rating 1536 vs 1494).
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Medeama SC	Heart of Lions
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.2	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.60

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:19 +12’	1.50	3.60	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Medeama SC 2–2–2 Heart of Lions

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Ghana Premier League	Medeama SC	5-2 HT 2-1	Heart of Lions
27/12/25 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	0-1 HT 0-1	Medeama SC
16/04/25 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	1-0 HT 0-0	Medeama SC
05/10/24 Ghana Premier League	Medeama SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
02/06/24 Ghana Premier League	Medeama SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Heart of Lions
17/01/24 Ghana Premier League	Heart of Lions	2-2 HT 0-1	Medeama SC

Standings · Ghana Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Medeama SC	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
2	Samartex	5	3	2	0	7	3	11
3	Port City FC Ghana	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
4	Aduana Stars	5	3	1	1	6	3	10
5	Basake Holy Stars FC	5	3	0	2	4	5	9
6	Swedru All Blacks Utd	6	2	2	2	4	4	8
7	Asante Kotoko	6	2	2	2	6	7	8
8	Heart of Lions	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
9	Hearts of Oak	5	2	2	1	6	2	8
10	Ashanti Gold	5	2	1	2	8	7	7
11	Bechem FC	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
12	Vision FC	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
13	Karela United FC	5	2	0	3	6	7	6
14	Debibi United	5	1	1	3	6	6	4
15	Bibiani Gold Stars	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
16	Berekum Chelsea	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
17	Young Apostles	5	1	0	4	2	9	3
18	Dreams	5	0	2	3	5	9	2

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Medeama SC

WLWWLDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Debibi United Ghana Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
30/09	Port City FC Ghana Ghana Premier League	1-0	1-0	14	4	W
27/09	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	4-1	4-1	6	2	W
23/09	Dreams Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Vision FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	7	D
24/05	Hearts of Oak Ghana Premier League	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
17/05	Heart of Lions Ghana Premier League	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
10/05	Basake Holy Stars FC Ghana Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
06/05	Berekum Chelsea Ghana Premier League	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	Bibiani Gold Stars Ghana Premier League	2-0	2-0	3	1	W

Heart of Lions

DDLWLDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Ashanti Gold Ghana Premier League	3-1	3-2	7	4	W
27/09	Young Apostles Ghana Premier League	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
19/09	Swedru All Blacks Utd Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
13/09	Asante Kotoko Ghana Premier League	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
06/09	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
17/05	Medeama SC Ghana Premier League	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
10/05	Samartex Ghana Premier League	3-0	3-0	–	–	W
06/05	Nations FC Ghana Premier League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
03/05	Aduana Stars Ghana Premier League	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/04	Karela United FC Ghana Premier League	1-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Medeama SC vs Heart of Lions?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Medeama SC win (60%). Probabilities: Medeama SC 60%, draw 25%, Heart of Lions 15%.

How many goals are expected in Medeama SC vs Heart of Lions?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Medeama SC 1.76 · Heart of Lions 0.77), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Medeama SC vs Heart of Lions?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.