Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 30/09, 19:00

Prediction: Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Team pages: Maccabi Ironi Ashdod · Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1.24

Hapoel Holon Yaniv1.24

1X2

36% 29% 36%

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Draw Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDLDDD

Hapoel Holon Yaniv 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDDWLW

Head-to-head

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1–3–2 Hapoel Holon Yaniv (6 last)

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1-1Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv5-3Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1-4Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-0Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-3Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1-1Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1473 · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1485

	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	Draw	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hapoel Holon Yaniv: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.4 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:44 +31’	2.50	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1–3–2 Hapoel Holon Yaniv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/12/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	1-1 HT 0-0	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
25/04/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	5-3	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
28/12/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	1-4 HT 0-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
22/03/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
10/01/24 Israel Cup	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-3 HT 0-1	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
29/12/23 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	1-1 HT 1-0	Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
2	Shimshon Tel Aviv	4	3	1	0	9	4	10
3	Hapoel Herzliya	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Sport Club Dimona	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
5	MS Jerusalem	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
6	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	4	2	2	0	3	1	8
7	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	4	2	1	1	3	3	7
8	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
9	Hapoel Azor	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
10	Maccabi Yavne	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
11	Hapoel Hadera	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Ironi Beit Shemesh	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
13	Kfar Saba 1928	4	1	0	3	5	5	3
14	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	4	0	3	1	5	6	3
15	Hapoel Marmorek	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
16	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	AS Nordia Jerusalem	4	0	0	4	2	9	0
18	Tzeirey Tira	4	0	0	4	1	8	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Marmorek	1-1 D	1-0 W
Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	3-2 W	0-0 D
Kfar Saba 1928	1-1 D	1-0 W
Maccabi Yavne	0-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Holon Yaniv (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

LDWLDDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Hapoel Hadera Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
18/09	Ironi Beit Shemesh Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
09/09	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
03/09	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
27/02	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
13/02	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
06/02	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
30/01	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	3-2	3-2	2	4	W
23/01	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
16/01	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	0-5	0	5	L

Hapoel Holon Yaniv

LLLWDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/09	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
09/09	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
04/09	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/02	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/02	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/02	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
22/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	2-3	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maccabi Ironi Ashdod win (36%). Probabilities: Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 36%, draw 29%, Hapoel Holon Yaniv 36%.

How many goals are expected in Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv?

The model expects 2.47 goals (Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1.24 · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.