Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 30/09, 20:00

Prediction: Tzeirey Tira vs MS Jerusalem

Team pages: Tzeirey Tira · MS Jerusalem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Tzeirey Tira1.21

MS Jerusalem1.85

1X2

24% 25% 51%

Tzeirey Tira Draw MS Jerusalem

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tzeirey Tira 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLLLL

MS Jerusalem 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWDWD

Head-to-head

Tzeirey Tira 1–1–2 MS Jerusalem (4 last)

Tzeirey Tira2-0MS Jerusalem
MS Jerusalem1-0Tzeirey Tira
MS Jerusalem2-2Tzeirey Tira
Tzeirey Tira1-7MS Jerusalem

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tzeirey Tira 1444 · MS Jerusalem 1558

	Tzeirey Tira	Draw	MS Jerusalem
Our model	24%	25%	51%
Market	24%	25%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MS Jerusalem (rating 1444 vs 1558).
H2H favours MS Jerusalem: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tzeirey Tira	MS Jerusalem
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.7	3.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.60

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:49 +27’	3.75	3.60	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tzeirey Tira 1–1–2 MS Jerusalem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	2-0 HT 1-0	MS Jerusalem
27/08/25 Israel Cup	MS Jerusalem	1-0 HT 0-0	Tzeirey Tira
03/01/25 Israel Liga Alef South	MS Jerusalem	2-2 HT 0-1	Tzeirey Tira
07/09/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Tzeirey Tira	1-7 HT 0-4	MS Jerusalem

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	4	3	1	0	11	3	10
2	Shimshon Tel Aviv	4	3	1	0	9	4	10
3	Hapoel Herzliya	4	3	1	0	6	2	10
4	Sport Club Dimona	4	3	0	1	5	5	9
5	MS Jerusalem	4	2	2	0	7	4	8
6	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	4	2	2	0	3	1	8
7	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	4	2	1	1	3	3	7
8	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
9	Hapoel Azor	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
10	Maccabi Yavne	4	1	2	1	4	2	5
11	Hapoel Hadera	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
12	Ironi Beit Shemesh	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
13	Kfar Saba 1928	4	1	0	3	5	5	3
14	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	4	0	3	1	5	6	3
15	Hapoel Marmorek	4	1	0	3	2	4	3
16	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	4	0	2	2	2	5	2
17	AS Nordia Jerusalem	4	0	0	4	2	9	0
18	Tzeirey Tira	4	0	0	4	1	8	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tzeirey Tira	MS Jerusalem
Hapoel Herzliya	0-1 L	5-1 W
Sport Club Dimona	0-1 L	4-1 W
AS Nordia Jerusalem	5-2 W	3-1 W
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	3-0 W	1-1 D
Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	1-2 L	1-2 L
FC Beitar Yavne	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MS Jerusalem (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tzeirey Tira

LLWWWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	0	7	L
17/09	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	3	7	L
09/09	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	0-2	4	7	L
03/09	Maccabi Ironi Sderot Israel Liga Alef South	1-3	1-4	1	6	L
19/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
13/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	3-1	5-2	6	7	W
06/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
31/01	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
16/01	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L

MS Jerusalem

WLWDWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	–	1-1	0	0	D
18/09	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
09/09	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
04/09	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	2-1	9	4	W
27/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
20/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
13/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-3	6	5	D
06/02	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	2-1	5-1	6	5	W
30/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
23/01	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	3-0	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tzeirey Tira vs MS Jerusalem?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MS Jerusalem win (51%). Probabilities: Tzeirey Tira 24%, draw 25%, MS Jerusalem 51%.

How many goals are expected in Tzeirey Tira vs MS Jerusalem?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Tzeirey Tira 1.21 · MS Jerusalem 1.85), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tzeirey Tira vs MS Jerusalem?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.