Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 08/10, 18:40

Prediction: Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs AS Nordia Jerusalem

Team pages: Hapoel Holon Yaniv · AS Nordia Jerusalem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

Hapoel Holon Yaniv1.64

AS Nordia Jerusalem0.87

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Hapoel Holon Yaniv Draw AS Nordia Jerusalem

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Holon Yaniv 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDDDWLWL

AS Nordia Jerusalem 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Hapoel Holon Yaniv 3–2–1 AS Nordia Jerusalem (6 last)

AS Nordia Jerusalem1-2Hapoel Holon Yaniv
AS Nordia Jerusalem2-3Hapoel Holon Yaniv
AS Nordia Jerusalem3-2Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-0AS Nordia Jerusalem
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-0AS Nordia Jerusalem
AS Nordia Jerusalem0-3Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1494 · AS Nordia Jerusalem 1368

	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	Draw	AS Nordia Jerusalem
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	55%	25%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Holon Yaniv (rating 1494 vs 1368).
H2H favours Hapoel Holon Yaniv: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	AS Nordia Jerusalem
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1	0.9 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.5	5.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.60

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +3’	1.61	3.60	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 3–2–1 AS Nordia Jerusalem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/12/25 Israel Liga Alef South	AS Nordia Jerusalem	1-2 HT 0-2	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
29/08/25 Israel Cup	AS Nordia Jerusalem	2-3 HT 1-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
12/03/25 Israel Liga Alef South	AS Nordia Jerusalem	3-2 HT 1-0	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
08/11/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-0 HT 0-0	AS Nordia Jerusalem
12/03/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-0 HT 0-0	AS Nordia Jerusalem
14/12/23 Israel Liga Alef South	AS Nordia Jerusalem	0-3 HT 0-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Dimona	5	4	0	1	8	7	12
2	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
3	MS Jerusalem	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	Hapoel Herzliya	5	3	2	0	6	2	11
5	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	5	3	2	0	5	2	11
6	Shimshon Tel Aviv	5	3	1	1	10	6	10
7	Maccabi Yavne	5	2	2	1	9	3	8
8	Hapoel Hadera	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
9	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	5	2	1	2	6	4	7
10	Hapoel Azor	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
11	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
12	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	5	1	3	1	7	6	6
13	Kfar Saba 1928	5	1	1	3	7	7	4
14	Hapoel Marmorek	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
15	Ironi Beit Shemesh	5	1	1	3	5	13	4
16	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
17	Tzeirey Tira	5	0	0	5	1	10	0
18	AS Nordia Jerusalem	5	0	0	5	2	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	AS Nordia Jerusalem
Kfar Saba 1928	1-0 W	1-2 L
Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Holon Yaniv (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Holon Yaniv

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
24/09	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
17/09	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
09/09	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
04/09	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/02	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/02	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/02	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-2	6	7	L

AS Nordia Jerusalem

LDLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Hapoel Hadera Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-4	1	3	L
23/09	Ironi Beit Shemesh Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-1	9	9	L
18/09	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-3	7	6	L
09/09	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
03/09	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/02	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
20/02	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/02	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	1-3	2-5	2	7	L
06/02	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	2-2	8	6	D
31/01	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs AS Nordia Jerusalem?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Holon Yaniv win (55%). Probabilities: Hapoel Holon Yaniv 55%, draw 26%, AS Nordia Jerusalem 19%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs AS Nordia Jerusalem?

The model expects 2.51 goals (Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1.64 · AS Nordia Jerusalem 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs AS Nordia Jerusalem?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.