Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 09/10, 11:00

Prediction: MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

Team pages: MS Jerusalem · Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

MS Jerusalem1.61

Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi1.09

1X2

49% 27% 25%

MS Jerusalem Draw Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

MS Jerusalem 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWDWDW

Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDDWWWD

Head-to-head

MS Jerusalem 1–2–3 Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi (6 last)

MS Jerusalem1-2Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi2-1MS Jerusalem
Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi0-1MS Jerusalem
MS Jerusalem0-0Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
MS Jerusalem0-1Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
MS Jerusalem0-0Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · MS Jerusalem 1566 · Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi 1577

	MS Jerusalem	Draw	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
Our model	48%	27%	24%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	MS Jerusalem	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	1.6 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 6.6	1.7 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:16 +1’	1.83	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · MS Jerusalem 1–2–3 Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South	MS Jerusalem	1-2 HT 1-1	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
19/09/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	2-1 HT 0-0	MS Jerusalem
21/02/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	0-1 HT 0-0	MS Jerusalem
22/10/24 Israel Liga Alef South	MS Jerusalem	0-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
10/02/23 Israel Liga Bet South	MS Jerusalem	0-1 HT 0-1	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
25/03/22 Israel Liga Bet South	MS Jerusalem	0-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Dimona	5	4	0	1	8	7	12
2	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
3	MS Jerusalem	5	3	2	0	9	4	11
4	Hapoel Herzliya	5	3	2	0	6	2	11
5	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	5	3	2	0	5	2	11
6	Shimshon Tel Aviv	5	3	1	1	10	6	10
7	Maccabi Yavne	5	2	2	1	9	3	8
8	Hapoel Hadera	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
9	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	5	2	1	2	6	4	7
10	Hapoel Azor	5	2	1	2	4	6	7
11	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
12	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	5	1	3	1	7	6	6
13	Kfar Saba 1928	5	1	1	3	7	7	4
14	Hapoel Marmorek	5	1	1	3	4	6	4
15	Ironi Beit Shemesh	5	1	1	3	5	13	4
16	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	5	0	2	3	4	8	2
17	Tzeirey Tira	5	0	0	5	1	10	0
18	AS Nordia Jerusalem	5	0	0	5	2	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	MS Jerusalem	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi
Sport Club Dimona	4-1 W	5-1 W
Hapoel Herzliya	5-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

MS Jerusalem

LWDWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-0	12	8	W
24/09	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	–	1-1	0	0	D
18/09	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-1	6	6	W
09/09	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
04/09	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	2-1	9	4	W
27/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
20/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
13/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-3	6	5	D
06/02	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	2-1	5-1	6	5	W
30/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	7	4	L

Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi

WWDWDDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
23/09	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	5-1	4	7	W
18/09	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	3-0	8	2	W
09/09	Maccabi Ironi Sderot Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-1	4	5	W
03/09	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
27/02	Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
20/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
13/02	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
06/02	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
30/01	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	2-1	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a MS Jerusalem win (49%). Probabilities: MS Jerusalem 49%, draw 27%, Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi 25%.

How many goals are expected in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi?

The model expects 2.7 goals (MS Jerusalem 1.61 · Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi 1.09), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.