Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 02/11, 16:30
Prediction: Hapoel Azor vs MS Jerusalem
Team pages: Hapoel Azor · MS Jerusalem
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Hapoel Azor1.48
MS Jerusalem1.25
1X2
Hapoel Azor
Draw
MS Jerusalem
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Hapoel Azor
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
MS Jerusalem
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hapoel Azor
0–1–2
MS Jerusalem
(3 last)
- MS Jerusalem1-1Hapoel Azor
- Hapoel Azor0-3MS Jerusalem
- MS Jerusalem3-1Hapoel Azor
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hapoel Azor 1561 · MS Jerusalem 1506
| Hapoel Azor | Draw | MS Jerusalem | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Azor (rating 1561 vs 1506).
- H2H favours MS Jerusalem: 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hapoel Azor | MS Jerusalem | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 33/22/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3 | 3.8 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Azor 0–1–2 MS Jerusalem
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South | MS Jerusalem | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Hapoel Azor |
| 24/01/25 Israel Liga Alef South | Hapoel Azor | 0-3 HT 0-2 | MS Jerusalem |
| 20/09/24 Israel Liga Alef South | MS Jerusalem | 3-1 HT 3-0 | Hapoel Azor |
Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sport Club Dimona | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 21 |
| 2 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 6 | 19 |
| 3 | Hapoel Holon Yaniv | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 15 |
| 5 | Hapoel Hadera | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
| 6 | Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Maccabi Ironi Sderot | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 10 | 14 |
| 8 | Hapoel Herzliya | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 16 | 13 |
| 9 | Hapoel Marmorek | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | Hapoel Azor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| 11 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 18 | 11 |
| 12 | MS Jerusalem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 13 | Maccabi Yavne | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 10 |
| 14 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 10 |
| 15 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 9 |
| 16 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 4 |
| 17 | Tzeirey Tira | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| 18 | AS Nordia Jerusalem | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Hapoel Azor | MS Jerusalem |
|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Ironi Sderot | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 2-0 W | 2-4 L |
| Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi | 0-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Tzeirey Tira | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Maccabi Yavne | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| AS Nordia Jerusalem | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: MS Jerusalem (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hapoel Azor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10 | Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South |
2-1 | 5-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 08/10 | Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/10 | Maccabi Ironi Sderot Israel Liga Alef South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 23/09 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/09 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/09 | Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 03/09 | Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/02 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/02 | Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/02 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
MS Jerusalem
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10 | Maccabi Ironi Sderot Israel Liga Alef South |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/10 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda Israel Liga Alef South |
0-3 | 2-4 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 09/10 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/09 | Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 8 | W |
| 24/09 | Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South |
– | 1-1 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 18/09 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 09/09 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 04/09 | Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/02 | Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/02 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hapoel Azor vs MS Jerusalem?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Azor win (42%). Probabilities: Hapoel Azor 42%, draw 27%, MS Jerusalem 31%.
How many goals are expected in Hapoel Azor vs MS Jerusalem?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Hapoel Azor 1.48 · MS Jerusalem 1.25), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Hapoel Azor vs MS Jerusalem?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.