Football · Australia NPL Victoria Women · 20/09, 08:00

Prediction: Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)

Team pages: Box Hill (W) · Avondale FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Box Hill (W)1.4

Avondale FC (W)1.53

1X2

33% 27% 39%

Box Hill (W) Draw Avondale FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Box Hill (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWDWWW

Avondale FC (W) 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Box Hill (W) 0–1–1 Avondale FC (W) (2 last)

Box Hill (W)1-1Avondale FC (W)
Avondale FC (W)1-0Box Hill (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Box Hill (W) 1599 · Avondale FC (W) 1612

	Box Hill (W)	Draw	Avondale FC (W)
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Box Hill (W)	Avondale FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.7	3.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.4 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	1.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.20

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 8 moves · last 07:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.70▲	Bet365 2.70
X	3.40 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.55 ★
2	2.38 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (8)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
07:37 +7’	2.50	3.40	2.38
18:47 +3’	2.25▼	3.30▼	2.70▲
23:18 +5’	2.20▼	3.50▲	2.63▼
22:33 +15’	2.45▲	3.40▼	2.45▼
23:42 +24’	2.50▲	3.40	2.40▼
02:28 +3’	2.55▲	3.40	2.35▼
05:33 +9’	2.60▲	3.30▼	2.35
07:42 +2’	2.70▲	3.20▼	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:15 +94’	2.54	3.46	2.26
04:34 +68’	2.56▲	3.36▼	2.29▲
06:01 +45’	2.59▲	3.41▲	2.31▲
07:36 +9’	2.56▼	3.55▲	2.28▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Box Hill (W) 0–1–1 Avondale FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/08/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Box Hill (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Avondale FC (W)
02/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women	Avondale FC (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Box Hill (W)

Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Box Hill (W)	26	19	3	4	67	27	60
2	Essendon Royals (W)	26	18	2	6	77	31	56
3	Avondale FC (W)	26	16	4	6	65	27	52
4	Bulleen Lions (W)	26	16	4	6	59	28	52
5	South Melbourne (W)	26	13	6	7	49	25	45
6	Boroondara Eagles (W)	26	14	3	9	53	40	45
7	Alamein FC (W)	26	13	3	10	34	27	42
8	Melbourne Victory NPL (W)	26	11	2	13	48	54	35
9	Heidelberg United (W)	26	9	5	12	38	48	32
10	Preston Lions (W)	26	8	6	12	31	47	30
11	Keilor Park (W)	26	7	6	13	25	45	27
12	Spring Hills FC (W)	26	8	2	16	30	46	26
13	Bentleigh Greens (W)	26	3	3	20	22	81	12
14	Melbourne City NPL (W)	26	2	1	23	22	94	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Box Hill (W)	Avondale FC (W)
Spring Hills FC (W)	1-0 W	5-1 W
Boroondara Eagles (W)	3-1 W	5-3 W
South Melbourne (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Avondale FC (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Box Hill (W)

DWWWWWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
30/08	Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
14/08	Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-1	5	0	D
08/08	Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	3-2	5	4	W
24/07	Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
17/07	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
10/07	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-1	12	1	W
04/07	Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	3-1	5-1	9	0	W
27/06	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	2-2	3	5	D

Avondale FC (W)

WWWWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
06/09	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-1	5-3	4	3	W
30/08	Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	5-1	7	0	W
22/08	Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-3	3-3	11	0	D
14/08	Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-1	1-1	6	0	D
08/08	South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
25/07	Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	4-0	4-0	4	0	W
18/07	Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	0-0	3-0	8	3	W
10/07	Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	1-0	3-0	7	0	W
04/07	Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women	2-0	4-2	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avondale FC (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Box Hill (W) 33%, draw 27%, Avondale FC (W) 39%.

How many goals are expected in Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Box Hill (W) 1.4 · Avondale FC (W) 1.53), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Box Hill (W) vs Avondale FC (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.