Football · Switzerland Super League · 08/11, 14:00

Prediction: St Gallen vs Lugano

Team pages: St Gallen · Lugano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.49Total

St Gallen1.84

Lugano1.65

1X2

42% 24% 34%

St Gallen Draw Lugano

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

St Gallen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLWWLW

Lugano 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

St Gallen 3–2–1 Lugano (6 last)

Lugano4-1St Gallen
Lugano1-2St Gallen
St Gallen1-1Lugano
Lugano1-3St Gallen
St Gallen1-0Lugano
Lugano1-1St Gallen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Gallen 1532 · Lugano 1614

	St Gallen	Draw	Lugano
Our model	42%	24%	34%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.49 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lugano (rating 1532 vs 1614).
H2H favours St Gallen: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Gallen	Lugano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	3 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 6.6	3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.80

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.91
2	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.79

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8% Pinnacle margin 4.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:16 +1’	2.20	3.80	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10 +13’	2.29	3.90	2.83
12:10 +6’	2.31▲	3.91▲	2.79▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Gallen 3–2–1 Lugano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/09/26 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	4-1 HT 4-0	St Gallen
10/05/26 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	1-2 HT 0-0	St Gallen
17/03/26 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	1-1 HT 1-0	Lugano
26/11/25 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	1-3 HT 1-1	St Gallen
13/09/25 Switzerland Super League	St Gallen	1-0 HT 1-0	Lugano
13/04/25 Switzerland Super League	Lugano	1-1 HT 0-0	St Gallen

Standings · Switzerland Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lugano	12	11	1	0	36	10	34
2	Young Boys	12	7	4	1	38	23	25
3	FC Sion	12	7	2	3	25	18	23
4	FC Zurich	12	6	2	4	25	26	20
5	St Gallen	12	6	1	5	19	22	19
6	Servette	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
7	Basel	12	4	2	6	18	22	14
8	Lucerne	12	3	4	5	19	25	13
9	FC Thun	12	4	1	7	24	34	13
10	FC Vaduz	12	3	1	8	24	25	10
11	Grasshoppers	12	2	4	6	15	28	10
12	FC Lausanne-Sport	12	1	3	8	11	22	6

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Gallen	Lugano
Servette	2-1 W	1-0 W
Young Boys	0-2 L	2-2 D
FC Lausanne-Sport	1-0 W	4-0 W
Basel	3-1 W	2-1 W
FC Sion	0-3 L	2-1 W
FC Thun	3-4 L	3-2 W
Lucerne	2-2 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lugano (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

St Gallen

DLLWLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
24/10	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
11/10	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
20/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-1	7	5	W
16/09	Lugano Switzerland Super League	0-4	1-4	8	7	L
12/09	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	0-2	0-3	10	3	L
06/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League	0-1	0-2	14	3	L
30/08	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	0-1	3-4	6	4	L
09/08	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-2	6	8	D

Lugano

WWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	Basel Switzerland Super League	2-1	2-1	6	7	W
25/10	FC Thun Switzerland Super League	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
10/10	Lucerne Switzerland Super League	1-0	4-0	8	5	W
20/09	FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League	1-0	4-0	6	7	W
16/09	St Gallen Switzerland Super League	4-0	4-1	2	7	W
12/09	Young Boys Switzerland Super League	1-2	2-2	4	5	D
06/09	Basel Switzerland Super League	0-0	3-1	7	6	W
03/09	Servette Switzerland Super League	0-0	1-0	11	4	W
30/08	FC Sion Switzerland Super League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
09/08	FC Zurich Switzerland Super League	2-0	5-0	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Gallen vs Lugano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Gallen win (42%). Probabilities: St Gallen 42%, draw 24%, Lugano 34%.

How many goals are expected in St Gallen vs Lugano?

The model expects 3.49 goals (St Gallen 1.84 · Lugano 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St Gallen vs Lugano?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.