Football · Switzerland Super League · 08/11, 16:30
Prediction: FC Thun vs Basel
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4Total
FC Thun2.18
Basel1.83
1X2
FC Thun
Draw
Basel
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 62%
Most likely score
1-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Thun
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Basel
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Thun
2–4
Basel
(6 last)
- Basel4-2FC Thun
- Basel3-1FC Thun
- FC Thun3-1Basel
- Basel1-2FC Thun
- FC Thun1-3Basel
- Basel2-0FC Thun
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Thun 1491 · Basel 1471
| FC Thun | Draw | Basel | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
4 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Basel: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Thun | Basel | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.7 | 1.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Thun 2–0–4 Basel
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 4-2 HT 2-0 | FC Thun |
| 02/05/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Thun |
| 18/04/26 Switzerland Super League | FC Thun | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Basel |
| 01/02/26 Switzerland Super League | Basel | 1-2 HT 0-1 | FC Thun |
| 13/09/25 Switzerland Super League | FC Thun | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Basel |
| 11/01/25 Europe Friendlies | Basel | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Thun |
Standings · Switzerland Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugano | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 10 | 34 |
| 2 | Young Boys | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 38 | 23 | 25 |
| 3 | FC Sion | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 18 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Zurich | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 20 |
| 5 | St Gallen | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 22 | 19 |
| 6 | Servette | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 7 | Basel | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 14 |
| 8 | Lucerne | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 25 | 13 |
| 9 | FC Thun | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 24 | 34 | 13 |
| 10 | FC Vaduz | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 24 | 25 | 10 |
| 11 | Grasshoppers | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 10 |
| 12 | FC Lausanne-Sport | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Thun | Basel |
|---|---|---|
| Lugano | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FC Zurich | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| FC Vaduz | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Grasshoppers | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| FC Sion | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| St Gallen | 4-3 W | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Thun
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
1-2 | 5-4 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | Servette Switzerland Super League |
1-2 | 2-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 06/09 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 02/09 | FC Lausanne-Sport Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 4-3 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 09/08 | Basel Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 4 | L |
Basel
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 25/10 | Grasshoppers Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | FC Vaduz Switzerland Super League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 20/09 | St Gallen Switzerland Super League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 13/09 | Lucerne Switzerland Super League |
2-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | Lugano Switzerland Super League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 03/09 | FC Sion Switzerland Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Young Boys Switzerland Super League |
2-3 | 3-3 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 22/08 | FC Zurich Switzerland Super League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 09/08 | FC Thun Switzerland Super League |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Thun vs Basel?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Thun win (45%). Probabilities: FC Thun 45%, draw 23%, Basel 32%.
How many goals are expected in FC Thun vs Basel?
The model expects 4 goals (FC Thun 2.18 · Basel 1.83), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Thun vs Basel?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.