Football · Japan Regional League · 06/09, 10:00

Prediction: Nankatsu SC vs Aries Toshima FC

Team pages: Nankatsu SC · Aries Toshima FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Nankatsu SC1.85

Aries Toshima FC1.12

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Nankatsu SC Draw Aries Toshima FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nankatsu SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Aries Toshima FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nankatsu SC 2–2 Aries Toshima FC (4 last)

Aries Toshima FC2-1Nankatsu SC
Aries Toshima FC0-2Nankatsu SC
Nankatsu SC1-2Aries Toshima FC
Aries Toshima FC1-2Nankatsu SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nankatsu SC 1549 · Aries Toshima FC 1536

	Nankatsu SC	Draw	Aries Toshima FC
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nankatsu SC	Aries Toshima FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.3	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.6	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:54 +3’	1.67	3.75	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nankatsu SC 2–0–2 Aries Toshima FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Nankatsu SC
06/07/25 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Nankatsu SC
22/09/24 Japan Regional League	Nankatsu SC	1-2 HT 1-0	Aries Toshima FC
29/06/24 Japan Regional League	Aries Toshima FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Nankatsu SC

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nankatsu SC	Aries Toshima FC
Toho Titanium	2-1 W	0-1 L
Nihon University	3-0 W	4-1 W
Toin Yokohama University	3-1 W	2-0 W
EDO ALL United	4-2 W	3-2 W
Tokyo United FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Ryutsu Keizai Dragons	2-2 D	2-0 W
Tokyo 23 FC	3-3 D	1-1 D
Shibuya City FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nankatsu SC (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nankatsu SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-1	2-1	6	2	W
26/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
19/07	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	3-0	3-1	7	2	W
12/07	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	1-2	4-2	–	–	W
05/07	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
28/06	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	2-2	2-2	6	1	D
07/06	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	2-0	3-3	4	4	D
30/05	Aries Toshima FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	9	9	L
17/05	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-0	9	4	W
05/05	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-0	1-1	2	3	D

Aries Toshima FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
16/08	Toin Yokohama University Japan Regional League	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
18/07	Shibuya City FC Japan Regional League	0-1	1-2	7	3	L
12/07	Toho Titanium Japan Regional League	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
05/07	Nihon University Japan Regional League	2-0	4-1	4	1	W
07/06	EDO ALL United Japan Regional League	2-1	3-2	2	2	W
30/05	Nankatsu SC Japan Regional League	1-0	2-1	5	9	W
17/05	Ryutsu Keizai Dragons Japan Regional League	1-1	2-1	10	5	W
05/05	Tokyo 23 FC Japan Regional League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
18/04	Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League	0-1	0-1	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nankatsu SC vs Aries Toshima FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nankatsu SC win (54%). Probabilities: Nankatsu SC 54%, draw 24%, Aries Toshima FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Nankatsu SC vs Aries Toshima FC?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Nankatsu SC 1.85 · Aries Toshima FC 1.12), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nankatsu SC vs Aries Toshima FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.