Football · Hong Kong 2nd Division · 06/09, 09:30

Prediction: Tuen Mun SA vs Yau Tsim Mong

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Tuen Mun SA1.54

Yau Tsim Mong1.67

1X2

35% 25% 40%

Tuen Mun SA Draw Yau Tsim Mong

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Tuen Mun SA 0-0-10 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLL

Yau Tsim Mong 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Tuen Mun SA 2–4 Yau Tsim Mong (6 last)

Yau Tsim Mong4-3Tuen Mun SA
Tuen Mun SA4-1Yau Tsim Mong
Yau Tsim Mong4-1Tuen Mun SA
Tuen Mun SA2-0Yau Tsim Mong
Yau Tsim Mong3-2Tuen Mun SA
Yau Tsim Mong2-1Tuen Mun SA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tuen Mun SA 1384 · Yau Tsim Mong 1458

	Tuen Mun SA	Draw	Yau Tsim Mong
Our model	34%	25%	40%
Market	35%	24%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yau Tsim Mong (rating 1384 vs 1458).
H2H favours Yau Tsim Mong: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tuen Mun SA	Yau Tsim Mong
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.3	1 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.1	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.75

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:08 +8’	2.55	3.75	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tuen Mun SA 2–0–4 Yau Tsim Mong

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/10/25 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	4-3 HT 0-3	Tuen Mun SA
17/03/24 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tuen Mun SA	4-1 HT 1-1	Yau Tsim Mong
15/10/23 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	4-1 HT 0-1	Tuen Mun SA
04/12/22 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Tuen Mun SA	2-0 HT 1-0	Yau Tsim Mong
12/06/22 Hong Kong Division Two League Cup	Yau Tsim Mong	3-2 HT 2-1	Tuen Mun SA
10/10/21 Hong Kong 2nd Division	Yau Tsim Mong	2-1 HT 1-0	Tuen Mun SA

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tuen Mun SA	Yau Tsim Mong
Tsuen Wan	1-2 L	1-0 W
Wing Yee	1-2 L	3-5 L
Sui Tung	0-1 L	1-6 L
GFC Friends	0-2 L	1-4 L
Leaper FC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Kwai Tsing DFA	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 6 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Tuen Mun SA (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tuen Mun SA

LLLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
08/02	Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
04/01	Kui Tan SC Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
21/12	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
30/11	Sui Tung Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
09/11	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-2	6	2	L
26/10	Yau Tsim Mong Hong Kong 2nd Division	3-0	3-4	3	3	L
19/10	Fukien Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
12/10	Leaper FC Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	1-3	7	2	L
05/10	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	1-2	2	0	L

Yau Tsim Mong

WLLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Kwai Tsing DFA Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
26/04	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
12/04	Wing Yee Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-1	3-5	0	2	L
22/03	GFC Friends Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-4	13	3	L
01/03	Leaper FC Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
01/02	Sui Tung Hong Kong 2nd Division	1-2	1-6	4	2	L
04/01	Sparta Asia Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
21/12	Kowloon Cricket Club Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
14/12	Wanchai Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
30/11	Tsuen Wan Hong Kong 2nd Division	0-0	1-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tuen Mun SA vs Yau Tsim Mong?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Yau Tsim Mong win (40%). Probabilities: Tuen Mun SA 35%, draw 25%, Yau Tsim Mong 40%.

How many goals are expected in Tuen Mun SA vs Yau Tsim Mong?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Tuen Mun SA 1.54 · Yau Tsim Mong 1.67), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tuen Mun SA vs Yau Tsim Mong?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.