Football · Finland Ykkonen · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: VJS Vantaa vs TPV

Team pages: VJS Vantaa · TPV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

VJS Vantaa2.42

TPV1.04

1X2

67% 19% 14%

VJS Vantaa Draw TPV

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

VJS Vantaa 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLWWWW

TPV 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLWLLW

Head-to-head

VJS Vantaa 3–2–1 TPV (6 last)

VJS Vantaa2-1TPV
TPV3-1VJS Vantaa
VJS Vantaa1-1TPV
VJS Vantaa6-2TPV
TPV2-2VJS Vantaa
TPV0-3VJS Vantaa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VJS Vantaa 1548 · TPV 1490

	VJS Vantaa	Draw	TPV
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VJS Vantaa (rating 1548 vs 1490).
H2H favours VJS Vantaa: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VJS Vantaa	TPV
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	2 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	70/0/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 7.8	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.37
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.39 ★
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +17’	1.33	5.00	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:11 +135’	1.37	5.39	6.24

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VJS Vantaa 3–2–1 TPV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/26 Finland Ykkonen	VJS Vantaa	2-1 HT 1-0	TPV
04/04/26 Finland Ykkonen	TPV	3-1 HT 2-0	VJS Vantaa
22/09/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B	VJS Vantaa	1-1 HT 1-1	TPV
08/07/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B	VJS Vantaa	6-2 HT 5-1	TPV
05/05/24 Finland Kakkonen Group B	TPV	2-2 HT 1-0	VJS Vantaa
24/10/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	TPV	0-3 HT 0-2	VJS Vantaa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VJS Vantaa	26	11	10	5	46	33	43
2	FC Jazz	26	11	6	9	39	38	36
3	TPV	26	8	6	12	39	48	30
4	FC Inter II	26	8	5	13	45	54	29
5	KPV	26	5	3	18	27	79	18
6	KUPS Akatemia	26	3	6	17	42	63	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VJS Vantaa	TPV
KUPS Akatemia	2-1 W	4-2 W
KPV	2-0 W	4-0 W
FC Jazz	2-0 W	1-3 L
FC Inter II	2-1 W	0-3 L
RoPS	0-2 L	6-3 W
PK Keski-Uusimaa	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VJS Vantaa

DDWDDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
26/09	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-0	14	8	W
19/09	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-1	11	6	W
29/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
23/08	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-4	5	4	D
09/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
05/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
31/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-1	9	9	D

TPV

WLDDWLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	KPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	4-0	4	3	W
26/09	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
20/09	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
13/09	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-0	4-2	9	3	W
29/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
22/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	11	3	D
05/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-4	5	4	L
01/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	6-3	0	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VJS Vantaa vs TPV?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VJS Vantaa win (67%). Probabilities: VJS Vantaa 67%, draw 19%, TPV 14%.

How many goals are expected in VJS Vantaa vs TPV?

The model expects 3.46 goals (VJS Vantaa 2.42 · TPV 1.04), with a 56% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VJS Vantaa vs TPV?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.