Football · Finland Ykkonen · 10/10, 13:00

Prediction: PK Keski-Uusimaa vs SalPa

Team pages: PK Keski-Uusimaa · SalPa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

PK Keski-Uusimaa1.7

SalPa1.86

1X2

35% 24% 41%

PK Keski-Uusimaa Draw SalPa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

PK Keski-Uusimaa 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDWLWL

SalPa 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLWWWWL

Head-to-head

PK Keski-Uusimaa 2–0 SalPa (2 last)

SalPa0-1PK Keski-Uusimaa
PK Keski-Uusimaa2-0SalPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PK Keski-Uusimaa 1533 · SalPa 1514

	PK Keski-Uusimaa	Draw	SalPa
Our model	35%	24%	41%
Market	35%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PK Keski-Uusimaa: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PK Keski-Uusimaa	SalPa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	2.1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:38 +10’	2.55	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PK Keski-Uusimaa 2–0–0 SalPa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/07/26 Finland Ykkonen	SalPa	0-1 HT 0-0	PK Keski-Uusimaa
02/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	PK Keski-Uusimaa	2-0 HT 1-0	SalPa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	25	15	5	5	58	26	50
2	RoPS	25	12	8	5	52	37	44
3	SalPa	25	12	6	7	52	45	42
4	OLS	25	11	8	6	50	37	41
5	PK Keski-Uusimaa	25	10	8	7	45	37	38
6	JJK	25	8	7	10	55	53	31

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PK Keski-Uusimaa	SalPa
OLS	0-3 L	4-1 W
RoPS	3-1 W	1-3 L
Tampere Utd	2-3 L	6-4 W
TPV	2-0 W	1-1 D
JJK	2-2 D	4-3 W
KUPS Akatemia	2-2 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PK Keski-Uusimaa

WDDWDDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	10	1	L
19/09	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	3-1	2	0	W
12/09	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-3	2	5	L
29/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	8	7	W
21/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-2	3	3	D
16/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
11/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
05/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
31/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-2	4-4	8	5	D
25/07	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	1	8	W

SalPa

LLWDLWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-3	1-3	6	6	L
19/09	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	1-2	6-4	2	6	W
12/09	JJK Finland Ykkonen	4-1	4-3	8	5	W
29/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
22/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
15/08	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
11/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PK Keski-Uusimaa vs SalPa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SalPa win (41%). Probabilities: PK Keski-Uusimaa 35%, draw 24%, SalPa 41%.

How many goals are expected in PK Keski-Uusimaa vs SalPa?

The model expects 3.57 goals (PK Keski-Uusimaa 1.7 · SalPa 1.86), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PK Keski-Uusimaa vs SalPa?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.