Football · Argentina Championship Women · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: San Lorenzo (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)

Team pages: San Lorenzo (W) · Gimnasia LP (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

San Lorenzo (W)1.89

Gimnasia LP (W)0.69

1X2

65% 23% 12%

San Lorenzo (W) Draw Gimnasia LP (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

San Lorenzo (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Gimnasia LP (W) 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

San Lorenzo (W) 2–4–0 Gimnasia LP (W) (6 last)

Gimnasia LP (W)1-4San Lorenzo (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)0-0San Lorenzo (W)
San Lorenzo (W)1-1Gimnasia LP (W)
San Lorenzo (W)2-1Gimnasia LP (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-1San Lorenzo (W)
Gimnasia LP (W)1-1San Lorenzo (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Lorenzo (W) 1566 · Gimnasia LP (W) 1432

	San Lorenzo (W)	Draw	Gimnasia LP (W)
Our model	65%	23%	12%
Market	65%	23%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Lorenzo (W) (rating 1566 vs 1432).
H2H favours San Lorenzo (W): 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Lorenzo (W)	Gimnasia LP (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/56/0%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.38

X3.90

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.93

2 (+1.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.38▲	Pinn 1.40
X	4.33 → 3.90▼	Pinn 4.13 ★
2	9.50 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:53 +22’	1.28	4.33	9.50
20:40 +42’	1.38▲	3.90▼	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:22	1.40	4.13	7.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Lorenzo (W) 2–4–0 Gimnasia LP (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-4 HT 1-1	San Lorenzo (W)
05/09/25 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	San Lorenzo (W)
16/03/25 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	1-1 HT 1-0	Gimnasia LP (W)
18/08/24 Argentina Championship Women	San Lorenzo (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Gimnasia LP (W)
23/03/24 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	San Lorenzo (W)
19/06/23 Argentina Championship Women	Gimnasia LP (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	San Lorenzo (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banfield (W)	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
2	San Luis FC (W)	6	4	0	2	11	10	12
3	San Lorenzo (W)	6	3	2	1	10	5	11
4	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Social Atletico Television (W)	6	3	2	1	6	3	11
6	Belgrano (W)	6	3	1	2	12	4	10
7	Boca Juniors (W)	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
8	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
9	River Plate (W)	4	3	0	1	9	3	9
10	Union Santa Fe (W)	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
11	Huracan (W)	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
12	Lanus (W)	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
13	CA Independiente Women	6	2	0	4	6	15	6
14	Racing Club (W)	5	1	1	3	5	7	4
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	6	0	0	6	2	11	0
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	6	0	0	6	2	15	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Lorenzo (W)	Gimnasia LP (W)
CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	1-2 L	1-2 L
Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	2-2 D	0-2 L
Boca Juniors (W)	2-1 W	0-2 L
Lanus (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
San Luis FC (W)	1-0 W	1-2 L
Union Santa Fe (W)	2-1 W	0-2 L
CA Independiente Women	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: San Lorenzo (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Lorenzo (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	3-0	4-0	1	3	W
24/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
17/08	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
10/08	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
03/08	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-2	2	7	D
27/07	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/07	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	7	4	L
13/07	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
08/07	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	6	9	W

Gimnasia LP (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
24/08	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
16/08	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
08/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
02/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
27/07	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
17/07	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
13/07	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
08/07	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-2	–	–	L
04/07	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	4-2	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Lorenzo (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Lorenzo (W) win (65%). Probabilities: San Lorenzo (W) 65%, draw 23%, Gimnasia LP (W) 12%.

How many goals are expected in San Lorenzo (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

The model expects 2.58 goals (San Lorenzo (W) 1.89 · Gimnasia LP (W) 0.69), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in San Lorenzo (W) vs Gimnasia LP (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.