Football · Argentina Championship Women · 11/09, 20:00

Prediction: CA Independiente Women vs Lanus (W)

Team pages: CA Independiente Women · Lanus (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

CA Independiente Women1.19

Lanus (W)1.14

1X2

36% 30% 34%

CA Independiente Women Draw Lanus (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CA Independiente Women 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLLLWLWL

Lanus (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWWLLW

Head-to-head

CA Independiente Women 2–2 Lanus (W) (4 last)

Lanus (W)0-1CA Independiente Women
Lanus (W)1-3CA Independiente Women
CA Independiente Women0-1Lanus (W)
CA Independiente Women0-1Lanus (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CA Independiente Women 1448 · Lanus (W) 1504

	CA Independiente Women	Draw	Lanus (W)
Our model	36%	31%	33%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lanus (W) (rating 1448 vs 1504).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CA Independiente Women	Lanus (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/38/50%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.6	1.1 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.63 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.12
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
19:54 +4’	2.45	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +30’	2.63	3.12	2.56

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CA Independiente Women 2–0–2 Lanus (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	0-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente Women
15/04/23 Argentina Championship Women	Lanus (W)	1-3 HT 0-3	CA Independiente Women
15/03/22 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-1 HT 0-1	Lanus (W)
29/09/19 Argentina Championship Women	CA Independiente Women	0-1 HT 0-0	Lanus (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Luis FC (W)	7	5	0	2	14	11	15
2	San Lorenzo (W)	7	4	2	1	12	5	14
3	Banfield (W)	7	4	2	1	12	6	14
4	Social Atletico Television (W)	7	4	2	1	9	4	14
5	Belgrano (W)	7	4	1	2	14	4	13
6	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
7	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
8	Boca Juniors (W)	6	3	1	2	7	5	10
9	River Plate (W)	4	3	0	1	9	3	9
10	Lanus (W)	5	3	0	2	6	6	9
11	Union Santa Fe (W)	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
12	Racing Club (W)	6	2	1	3	9	8	7
13	Huracan (W)	7	2	1	4	5	9	7
14	CA Independiente Women	7	2	0	5	7	18	6
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	7	0	0	7	2	13	0
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	7	0	0	7	3	19	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CA Independiente Women	Lanus (W)
Social Atletico Television (W)	0-2 L	2-0 W
Huracan (W)	3-2 W	1-0 W
Belgrano (W)	0-6 L	1-3 L
Banfield (W)	0-3 L	2-3 L
Gimnasia LP (W)	0-2 L	1-0 W
Newell's Old Boys (W)	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lanus (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CA Independiente Women

LWLLLLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-3	2	2	L
31/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
24/08	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
17/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	3-2	6	2	W
10/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-6	0	4	L
03/08	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	11	6	L
25/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
17/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
09/07	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-3	–	–	L

Lanus (W)

WLLDWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	0	6	W
30/08	Belgrano (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-3	2	2	L
16/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-3	2-3	2	3	L
08/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
02/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
22/07	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
08/07	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	0-1	–	–	L
05/07	Boca Juniors (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
27/06	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CA Independiente Women vs Lanus (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CA Independiente Women win (36%). Probabilities: CA Independiente Women 36%, draw 30%, Lanus (W) 34%.

How many goals are expected in CA Independiente Women vs Lanus (W)?

The model expects 2.34 goals (CA Independiente Women 1.19 · Lanus (W) 1.14), with a 55% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in CA Independiente Women vs Lanus (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.