Football · Argentina Championship Women · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Boca Juniors (W) vs Belgrano (W)

Team pages: Boca Juniors (W) · Belgrano (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.91Total

Boca Juniors (W)1.23

Belgrano (W)0.67

1X2

50% 30% 20%

Boca Juniors (W) Draw Belgrano (W)

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Boca Juniors (W) 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDDLWWWD

Belgrano (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Boca Juniors (W) 3–2–1 Belgrano (W) (6 last)

Belgrano (W)1-0Boca Juniors (W)
Boca Juniors (W)1-0Belgrano (W)
Boca Juniors (W)0-0Belgrano (W)
Boca Juniors (W)3-0Belgrano (W)
Belgrano (W)1-1Boca Juniors (W)
Boca Juniors (W)2-0Belgrano (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Boca Juniors (W) 1551 · Belgrano (W) 1550

	Boca Juniors (W)	Draw	Belgrano (W)
Our model	48%	32%	19%
Market	50%	28%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 1.91 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Boca Juniors (W): 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Boca Juniors (W)	Belgrano (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.10

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 21.82

Under 21.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:52 +2’	1.75	3.10	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Boca Juniors (W) 3–2–1 Belgrano (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/05/26 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Boca Juniors (W)
13/09/25 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Belgrano (W)
19/04/25 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	Belgrano (W)
10/11/24 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Belgrano (W)
23/06/24 Argentina Championship Women	Belgrano (W)	1-1 HT 1-1	Boca Juniors (W)
13/12/23 Argentina Championship Women	Boca Juniors (W)	2-0 HT 0-0	Belgrano (W)

Standings · Argentina Championship Women · Primera Division A, Women 2026, Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Banfield (W)	6	4	1	1	12	6	13
2	San Luis FC (W)	6	4	0	2	11	10	12
3	San Lorenzo (W)	6	3	2	1	10	5	11
4	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W)	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Social Atletico Television (W)	6	3	2	1	6	3	11
6	Belgrano (W)	6	3	1	2	12	4	10
7	Boca Juniors (W)	5	3	1	1	7	3	10
8	Ferro Carril Oeste (W)	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
9	River Plate (W)	4	3	0	1	9	3	9
10	Union Santa Fe (W)	6	2	2	2	8	9	8
11	Huracan (W)	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
12	Lanus (W)	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
13	CA Independiente Women	6	2	0	4	6	15	6
14	Racing Club (W)	5	1	1	3	5	7	4
15	Gimnasia LP (W)	6	0	0	6	2	11	0
16	Newell's Old Boys (W)	6	0	0	6	2	15	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Boca Juniors (W)	Belgrano (W)
Banfield (W)	0-0 D	1-0 W
Gimnasia LP (W)	2-0 W	2-1 W
Newell's Old Boys (W)	2-0 W	1-0 W
Social Atletico Television (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Lanus (W)	1-0 W	3-1 W
San Luis FC (W)	0-0 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Boca Juniors (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Boca Juniors (W)

DWWDDLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
16/08	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-0	1	4	W
08/08	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
03/08	Racing Club (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
27/07	San Lorenzo (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/07	CA Talleres de Cordoba (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
13/07	Ferro Carril Oeste (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-2	3-3	8	3	D
08/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	1-0	–	–	W
05/07	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
28/06	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Belgrano (W)

WWWWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Lanus (W) Argentina Championship Women	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
22/08	San Luis FC (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
16/08	Union Santa Fe (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-1	1-1	10	0	D
10/08	CA Independiente Women Argentina Championship Women	1-0	6-0	4	4	W
02/08	Huracan (W) Argentina Championship Women	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
26/07	Social Atletico Television (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
17/07	River Plate (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
13/07	Banfield (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
08/07	Gimnasia LP (W) Argentina Championship Women	–	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Newell's Old Boys (W) Argentina Championship Women	0-0	1-0	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Boca Juniors (W) vs Belgrano (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Boca Juniors (W) win (50%). Probabilities: Boca Juniors (W) 50%, draw 30%, Belgrano (W) 20%.

How many goals are expected in Boca Juniors (W) vs Belgrano (W)?

The model expects 1.91 goals (Boca Juniors (W) 1.23 · Belgrano (W) 0.67), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors (W) vs Belgrano (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.