Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 03/09, 19:45

Prediction: Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Herzliya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1.45

Hapoel Herzliya1.43

1X2

37% 28% 36%

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Draw Hapoel Herzliya

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDWLDD

Hapoel Herzliya 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 2–1–3 Hapoel Herzliya (6 last)

Hapoel Herzliya1-3Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod2-2Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya2-1Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1-0Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Herzliya1-0Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Hapoel Herzliya1-0Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1479 · Hapoel Herzliya 1430

	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	Draw	Hapoel Herzliya
Our model	37%	27%	36%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maccabi Ironi Ashdod (rating 1479 vs 1430).
H2H favours Hapoel Herzliya: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	Hapoel Herzliya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.3	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/44/22%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.1	1.7 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.49 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
13:40 +15’	2.45	3.20	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:55	2.49	3.12	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 2–1–3 Hapoel Herzliya

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/12/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Herzliya	1-3 HT 1-2	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
07/02/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	2-2 HT 1-0	Hapoel Herzliya
09/10/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Herzliya	2-1 HT 1-1	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
26/02/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	1-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Herzliya
21/09/23 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Herzliya	1-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
30/03/23 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Herzliya	1-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Nordia Jerusalem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sport Club Dimona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MS Jerusalem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tzeirey Tira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Azor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Hadera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Herzliya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Marmorek	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ironi Beit Shemesh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Yavne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kfar Saba 1928	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shimshon Tel Aviv	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	Hapoel Herzliya
Hapoel Marmorek	1-1 D	1-1 D
MS Jerusalem	3-3 D	1-5 L
Tzeirey Tira	0-3 L	0-1 L
Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	3-2 W	1-1 D
Kfar Saba 1928	1-1 D	3-1 W
Maccabi Yavne	0-5 L	0-3 L
Shimshon Tel Aviv	1-1 D	0-1 L
Maccabi Kiryat Gat	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Maccabi Ironi Ashdod (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maccabi Ironi Ashdod

DLLDLDWLDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/02	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-1	3	7	D
13/02	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-3	2	5	D
06/02	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
30/01	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	3-2	3-2	2	4	W
23/01	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	7	1	D
16/01	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	0-5	0	5	L
09/01	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
06/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
31/12	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/12	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	3-3	5	6	D

Hapoel Herzliya

LLLWDLLDDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
20/02	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/02	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/02	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-2	1-5	3	5	L
31/01	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
23/01	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
16/01	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
10/01	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-3	3	5	L
06/01	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-1	4	9	L
02/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	0-3	1-3	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Herzliya?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maccabi Ironi Ashdod win (37%). Probabilities: Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 37%, draw 28%, Hapoel Herzliya 36%.

How many goals are expected in Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Herzliya?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1.45 · Hapoel Herzliya 1.43), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Ironi Ashdod vs Hapoel Herzliya?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.