Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 04/09, 13:15

Prediction: Kfar Saba 1928 vs MS Jerusalem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Kfar Saba 19281.46

MS Jerusalem1.73

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Kfar Saba 1928 Draw MS Jerusalem

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kfar Saba 1928 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLDWWLDL

MS Jerusalem 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Kfar Saba 1928 0–1 MS Jerusalem (1 last)

Kfar Saba 19280-4MS Jerusalem

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kfar Saba 1928 1491 · MS Jerusalem 1540

	Kfar Saba 1928	Draw	MS Jerusalem
Our model	31%	25%	43%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MS Jerusalem (rating 1491 vs 1540).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kfar Saba 1928	MS Jerusalem
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	13/75/13%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	2.8 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.5	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:35 +2’	2.90	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kfar Saba 1928 0–0–1 MS Jerusalem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/12/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Kfar Saba 1928	0-4 HT 0-3	MS Jerusalem

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AS Nordia Jerusalem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sport Club Dimona	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	MS Jerusalem	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tzeirey Tira	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Azor	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Hadera	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Herzliya	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Marmorek	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ironi Beit Shemesh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Maccabi Yavne	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kfar Saba 1928	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Shimshon Tel Aviv	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kfar Saba 1928	MS Jerusalem
Sport Club Dimona	1-0 W	4-1 W
AS Nordia Jerusalem	2-1 W	2-1 W
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	1-1 D	3-3 D
Hapoel Herzliya	1-3 L	5-1 W
Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	1-1 D	1-2 L
FC Beitar Yavne	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: MS Jerusalem (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kfar Saba 1928

DDDLDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/02	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-4	1	6	L
19/02	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
13/02	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-4	1	3	L
06/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/01	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	2-1	4	7	W
23/01	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
16/01	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	1-3	10	7	L
11/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-1	5	9	D
09/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/01	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

MS Jerusalem

LDDLWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
20/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
13/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-3	6	5	D
06/02	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	2-1	5-1	6	5	W
30/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
23/01	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
16/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
09/01	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
06/01	Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South	3-2	3-3	3	4	D
01/01	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-2	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kfar Saba 1928 vs MS Jerusalem?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MS Jerusalem win (43%). Probabilities: Kfar Saba 1928 31%, draw 26%, MS Jerusalem 43%.

How many goals are expected in Kfar Saba 1928 vs MS Jerusalem?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Kfar Saba 1928 1.46 · MS Jerusalem 1.73), with a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Kfar Saba 1928 vs MS Jerusalem?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.