Football · Georgia Liga 3 · 03/09, 14:30

Prediction: FC Margveti 2006 vs FC Merani Tbilisi

Team pages: FC Margveti 2006 · FC Merani Tbilisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

FC Margveti 20061.3

FC Merani Tbilisi1.47

1X2

33% 27% 40%

FC Margveti 2006 Draw FC Merani Tbilisi

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Margveti 2006 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWLWDDW

FC Merani Tbilisi 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWDDLW

Head-to-head

FC Margveti 2006 1–1–2 FC Merani Tbilisi (4 last)

FC Merani Tbilisi0-1FC Margveti 2006
FC Margveti 20061-1FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Merani Tbilisi3-2FC Margveti 2006
FC Margveti 20060-3FC Merani Tbilisi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Margveti 2006 1504 · FC Merani Tbilisi 1484

	FC Margveti 2006	Draw	FC Merani Tbilisi
Our model	32%	28%	40%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Merani Tbilisi: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Margveti 2006	FC Merani Tbilisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:11 +7’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Margveti 2006 1–1–2 FC Merani Tbilisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Georgia Liga 3	FC Merani Tbilisi	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Margveti 2006
17/11/25 Europe Friendlies	FC Margveti 2006	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Merani Tbilisi
02/10/25 Georgia Liga 3	FC Merani Tbilisi	3-2 HT 1-1	FC Margveti 2006
10/06/24 Georgia Cup	FC Margveti 2006	0-3 HT 0-0	FC Merani Tbilisi

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Margveti 2006	FC Merani Tbilisi
FC Orbi	2-1 W	1-1 D
Wit Georgia	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Tbilisi 2025	1-1 D	0-2 L
Dinamo Tbilisi II	2-0 W	1-0 W
FC Gonio	0-4 L	1-1 D
FC Iberia 1999 II	2-0 W	0-1 L
Lokomotiv Tbilisi	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Margveti 2006 (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Margveti 2006

LWLLWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	0-1	2-1	3	8	W
12/08	Wit Georgia Georgia Liga 3	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
06/08	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
21/06	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Liga 3	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
15/06	FC Gonio Georgia Liga 3	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
28/05	FC Iberia 1999 II Georgia Liga 3	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
21/05	Lokomotiv Tbilisi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
14/05	Iveria Khashuri Georgia Liga 3	0-1	0-2	10	6	L
07/05	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	2-2	3-2	8	2	W
03/05	Kolkheti Georgia Liga 3	0-2	0-2	3	3	L

FC Merani Tbilisi

WLDWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Gardabani Georgia Liga 3	1-0	4-1	4	5	W
13/08	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Liga 3	0-3	0-5	1	4	L
06/08	FC Didube 2014 Georgia Liga 3	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
21/06	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
14/06	Wit Georgia Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
28/05	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
21/05	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
14/05	FC Gonio Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
07/05	FC Iberia 1999 II Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
03/05	Lokomotiv Tbilisi Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Margveti 2006 vs FC Merani Tbilisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Merani Tbilisi win (40%). Probabilities: FC Margveti 2006 33%, draw 27%, FC Merani Tbilisi 40%.

How many goals are expected in FC Margveti 2006 vs FC Merani Tbilisi?

The model expects 2.77 goals (FC Margveti 2006 1.3 · FC Merani Tbilisi 1.47), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Margveti 2006 vs FC Merani Tbilisi?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.