Football · Georgia Liga 3 · 09/09, 14:00

Prediction: Wit Georgia vs Lokomotiv Tbilisi

Team pages: Wit Georgia · Lokomotiv Tbilisi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.62Total

Wit Georgia1.24

Lokomotiv Tbilisi1.38

1X2

33% 27% 40%

Wit Georgia Draw Lokomotiv Tbilisi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Wit Georgia 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWDLW

Lokomotiv Tbilisi 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWDWDD

Head-to-head

Wit Georgia 2–2–2 Lokomotiv Tbilisi (6 last)

Lokomotiv Tbilisi2-2Wit Georgia
Wit Georgia1-3Lokomotiv Tbilisi
Lokomotiv Tbilisi1-1Wit Georgia
Wit Georgia3-0Lokomotiv Tbilisi
Lokomotiv Tbilisi0-1Wit Georgia
Lokomotiv Tbilisi3-1Wit Georgia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wit Georgia 1523 · Lokomotiv Tbilisi 1550

	Wit Georgia	Draw	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
Our model	32%	29%	39%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wit Georgia	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.2	3 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.71 ★
X	3.75 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	3.10 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.21

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
09:54 +6’	1.85	3.75	3.10
11:24 +8’	2.63▲	3.50▼	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:56 +4’	2.32	2.96	2.80
11:15 +17’	2.71▲	3.30▲	2.21▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wit Georgia 2–2–2 Lokomotiv Tbilisi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/04/26 Georgia Liga 3	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	2-2 HT 1-0	Wit Georgia
19/10/24 Georgia First League	Wit Georgia	1-3 HT 1-2	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
17/08/24 Georgia First League	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	1-1 HT 1-0	Wit Georgia
11/05/24 Georgia First League	Wit Georgia	3-0 HT 1-0	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
09/03/24 Georgia First League	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	0-1 HT 0-1	Wit Georgia
23/11/23 Georgia First League	Lokomotiv Tbilisi	3-1 HT 0-1	Wit Georgia

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wit Georgia	Lokomotiv Tbilisi
FC Iberia 2010	2-1 W	1-0 W
Kolkheti	2-3 L	2-0 W
FC Margveti 2006	1-1 D	1-0 W
Gardabani	5-0 W	1-1 D
Guria Lanchkhuti	1-0 W	1-0 W
FC Tbilisi 2025	0-1 L	3-3 D
Dinamo Tbilisi II	3-2 W	1-1 D
FC Iberia 1999 II	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 4 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wit Georgia

WWLWLLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/08	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Kolkheti Georgia Liga 3	2-2	2-3	2	2	L
12/08	FC Margveti 2006 Georgia Liga 3	1-1	1-1	10	5	D
06/08	Gardabani Georgia Liga 3	1-0	5-0	5	3	W
14/06	FC Merani Tbilisi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
21/05	FC Orbi Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
15/05	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
07/05	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
03/05	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Liga 3	0-1	3-2	12	4	W
24/04	FC Iberia 1999 II Georgia Liga 3	2-0	2-1	4	5	W

Lokomotiv Tbilisi

DWWWDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/09	FC Tbilisi 2025 Georgia Liga 3	2-0	3-3	7	3	D
27/08	Dinamo Tbilisi II Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-1	7	8	D
20/08	FC Gonio Georgia Liga 3	2-0	4-0	10	0	W
13/08	FC Iberia 1999 II Georgia Liga 3	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
06/08	Guria Lanchkhuti Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	0	0	W
21/06	Iveria Khashuri Georgia Liga 3	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
15/06	FC Iberia 2010 Georgia Liga 3	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
28/05	Kolkheti Georgia Liga 3	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
21/05	FC Margveti 2006 Georgia Liga 3	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
14/05	Gardabani Georgia Liga 3	1-1	1-1	9	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wit Georgia vs Lokomotiv Tbilisi?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lokomotiv Tbilisi win (40%). Probabilities: Wit Georgia 33%, draw 27%, Lokomotiv Tbilisi 40%.

How many goals are expected in Wit Georgia vs Lokomotiv Tbilisi?

The model expects 2.62 goals (Wit Georgia 1.24 · Lokomotiv Tbilisi 1.38), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wit Georgia vs Lokomotiv Tbilisi?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.