Football · Venezuela Segunda Division · 05/09, 21:30

Prediction: Monagas II vs Aragua

Team pages: Monagas II · Aragua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.16Total

Monagas II1.41

Aragua0.75

1X2

52% 28% 19%

Monagas II Draw Aragua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Monagas II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWDWLWD

Aragua 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWDDW

Head-to-head

Monagas II 3–1–2 Aragua (6 last)

Aragua1-2Monagas II
Monagas II1-0Aragua
Monagas II1-0Aragua
Aragua3-0Monagas II
Monagas II0-1Aragua
Aragua1-1Monagas II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monagas II 1558 · Aragua 1483

	Monagas II	Draw	Aragua
Our model	52%	30%	19%
Market	53%	27%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Monagas II (rating 1558 vs 1483).
H2H favours Monagas II: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 12.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monagas II	Aragua
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.7	3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.2 / 0.4	6.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.30

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.70▼	Bet365 1.70
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.70 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:31 +15’	1.90	3.20	3.70
22:40 +17’	1.70▼	3.30▲	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Monagas II 3–1–2 Aragua

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	1-2 HT 0-1	Monagas II
12/04/26 Venezuela Segunda Division	Monagas II	1-0 HT 0-0	Aragua
27/09/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Monagas II	1-0 HT 1-0	Aragua
17/08/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	3-0 HT 1-0	Monagas II
22/06/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Monagas II	0-1 HT 0-0	Aragua
04/05/25 Venezuela Segunda Division	Aragua	1-1 HT 1-1	Monagas II

Standings · Venezuela Segunda Division · Segunda Division 2026, Central-East

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Monagas II	19	10	5	4	30	20	35
2	Deportivo Miranda FC	19	10	5	4	21	14	35
3	Bolivar SC	19	9	3	7	21	20	30
4	Aragua	19	7	7	5	17	13	28
5	Dynamo Puerto FC	20	6	7	7	22	22	25
6	CS Maritimo de La Guaira	14	5	5	4	16	13	20
7	Atletico Avila	19	1	10	8	9	22	13
8	Mineros	19	1	8	10	16	28	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monagas II	Aragua
Deportivo Miranda FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Atletico Avila	3-0 W	0-0 D
Bolivar SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Mineros	2-1 W	1-1 D
Dynamo Puerto FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Monagas II (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monagas II

DLWWWDWLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	2	5	D
23/08	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	3-0	2	5	W
16/08	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	2-1	2-3	8	6	L
09/08	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-1	2	7	W
26/07	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	2-2	4	9	D
06/06	Aragua Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
31/05	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
22/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
17/05	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
09/05	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	2-2	3	5	D

Aragua

DDWWLLWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	2-0	13	5	W
23/08	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-1	4	9	D
09/08	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	11	3	D
01/08	Bolivar SC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	Deportivo Miranda FC Venezuela Segunda Division	0-2	1-2	6	6	L
06/06	Monagas II Venezuela Segunda Division	0-1	1-2	4	8	L
31/05	Dynamo Puerto FC Venezuela Segunda Division	1-0	2-1	3	8	W
23/05	Mineros Venezuela Segunda Division	2-0	2-0	4	7	W
16/05	CS Maritimo de La Guaira Venezuela Segunda Division	0-0	0-0	0	9	D
09/05	Atletico Avila Venezuela Segunda Division	1-1	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monagas II vs Aragua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monagas II win (52%). Probabilities: Monagas II 52%, draw 28%, Aragua 19%.

How many goals are expected in Monagas II vs Aragua?

The model expects 2.16 goals (Monagas II 1.41 · Aragua 0.75), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Monagas II vs Aragua?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.