Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 19/09, 15:30

Prediction: PFK Turan Tovuz vs Zira IK

Team pages: PFK Turan Tovuz · Zira IK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

PFK Turan Tovuz1.07

Zira IK0.9

1X2

38% 32% 29%

PFK Turan Tovuz Draw Zira IK

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

PFK Turan Tovuz 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWDLWD

Zira IK 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWWWLD

Head-to-head

PFK Turan Tovuz 1–3–2 Zira IK (6 last)

PFK Turan Tovuz1-1Zira IK
Zira IK0-0PFK Turan Tovuz
PFK Turan Tovuz0-2Zira IK
PFK Turan Tovuz2-0Zira IK
Zira IK0-0PFK Turan Tovuz
Zira IK1-0PFK Turan Tovuz

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PFK Turan Tovuz 1480 · Zira IK 1545

	PFK Turan Tovuz	Draw	Zira IK
Our model	38%	34%	29%
Market	39%	31%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Zira IK (rating 1480 vs 1545).
H2H favours Zira IK: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PFK Turan Tovuz	Zira IK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X2.90

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 09:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.42
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.26 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
06:09 +7’	2.20	2.90	3.20
09:38 +11’	2.30▲	2.90	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:22 +27’	2.42	2.69	3.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · PFK Turan Tovuz 1–3–2 Zira IK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	PFK Turan Tovuz	1-1 HT 1-0	Zira IK
21/04/26 Azerbaijan Cup	Zira IK	0-0 HT 0-0	PFK Turan Tovuz
03/04/26 Azerbaijan Cup	PFK Turan Tovuz	0-2 HT 0-0	Zira IK
20/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	PFK Turan Tovuz	2-0 HT 2-0	Zira IK
08/11/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	0-0 HT 0-0	PFK Turan Tovuz
02/05/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	Zira IK	1-0 HT 0-0	PFK Turan Tovuz

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	4	4	0	0	11	0	12
2	Neftchi Baku	5	4	0	1	15	5	12
3	FK Qarabag	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	Zira IK	5	3	1	1	7	7	10
5	PFK Turan Tovuz	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
6	FK Kapaz	4	2	0	2	3	6	6
7	Shamakhi FK	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
8	FK Gabala	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
9	Imisli	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
10	Safa Baku	5	1	0	4	2	10	3
11	Araz FK	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
12	FK Sumqayit	4	0	1	3	3	7	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PFK Turan Tovuz	Zira IK
Araz FK	2-2 D	2-3 L
FK Sumqayit	2-1 W	2-1 W
FK Gabala	1-0 W	1-0 W
Sabah	1-2 L	0-5 L
FK Qarabag	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: PFK Turan Tovuz (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PFK Turan Tovuz

DLWLLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
06/09	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
30/08	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
23/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
14/08	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
22/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
16/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	2-3	5	6	L
10/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
04/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
27/04	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-1	6	2	D

Zira IK

DWDWLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
30/08	Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
22/08	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
16/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
23/05	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	3	L
17/05	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	11	3	W
08/05	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
03/05	FK Gabala Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
27/04	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PFK Turan Tovuz vs Zira IK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PFK Turan Tovuz win (38%). Probabilities: PFK Turan Tovuz 38%, draw 32%, Zira IK 29%.

How many goals are expected in PFK Turan Tovuz vs Zira IK?

The model expects 1.98 goals (PFK Turan Tovuz 1.07 · Zira IK 0.9), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in PFK Turan Tovuz vs Zira IK?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.