Football · Azerbaijan Premier League · 18/09, 15:30

Prediction: FK Gabala vs Neftchi Baku

Team pages: FK Gabala · Neftchi Baku

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

FK Gabala0.64

Neftchi Baku1.73

1X2

13% 24% 63%

FK Gabala Draw Neftchi Baku

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Gabala 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWWLLDWL

Neftchi Baku 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWLWW

Head-to-head

FK Gabala 0–6 Neftchi Baku (6 last)

FK Gabala1-3Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku1-0FK Gabala
FK Gabala0-2Neftchi Baku
FK Gabala0-1Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku3-1FK Gabala
FK Gabala0-2Neftchi Baku

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Gabala 1470 · Neftchi Baku 1605

	FK Gabala	Draw	Neftchi Baku
Our model	12%	25%	63%
Market	13%	24%	63%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Neftchi Baku (rating 1470 vs 1605).
H2H favours Neftchi Baku: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Gabala	Neftchi Baku
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	2.6 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.3	2.7 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

17.00

X3.75

21.42

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)2.00

2 (-1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 7.00▲	Bet365 7.00
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.91
2	1.57 → 1.42▼	Pinn 1.49 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:51 +5’	5.25	3.50	1.57
07:03 +4’	7.00▲	3.75▲	1.42▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:55 +12’	6.62	4.06	1.44
08:48 +40’	6.15▼	3.91▼	1.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Gabala 0–0–6 Neftchi Baku

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	1-3 HT 1-1	Neftchi Baku
10/02/26 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Gabala
26/10/25 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	0-2 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku
29/03/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	0-1 HT 0-1	Neftchi Baku
28/01/24 Azerbaijan Premier League	Neftchi Baku	3-1 HT 0-0	FK Gabala
05/11/23 Azerbaijan Premier League	FK Gabala	0-2 HT 0-0	Neftchi Baku

Standings · Azerbaijan Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sabah	4	4	0	0	11	0	12
2	Neftchi Baku	5	4	0	1	15	5	12
3	FK Qarabag	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
4	Zira IK	5	3	1	1	7	7	10
5	PFK Turan Tovuz	5	2	2	1	5	4	8
6	FK Kapaz	4	2	0	2	3	6	6
7	Shamakhi FK	5	1	3	1	6	5	6
8	FK Gabala	5	1	1	3	2	4	4
9	Imisli	5	1	1	3	5	8	4
10	Safa Baku	5	1	0	4	2	10	3
11	Araz FK	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
12	FK Sumqayit	4	0	1	3	3	7	1

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Gabala	Neftchi Baku
FK Kapaz	0-1 L	1-0 W
Imisli	2-1 W	3-2 W
Shamakhi FK	0-0 D	3-0 W
Safa Baku	0-1 L	4-1 W
FK Karvan	2-1 W	3-0 W
FK Qarabag	1-1 D	2-1 W
Zira IK	0-1 L	0-1 L
Araz FK	1-1 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Neftchi Baku (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Gabala

DLDWWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
04/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
29/08	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-0	0	3	D
22/08	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
14/08	PFK Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
21/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	3-1	3-1	4	3	W
15/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
09/05	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
03/05	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
25/04	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	3	D

Neftchi Baku

WWWWWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Imisli Azerbaijan Premier League	2-2	3-2	7	1	W
05/09	Safa Baku Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	4-1	6	2	W
30/08	Zira IK Azerbaijan Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
23/08	Araz FK Azerbaijan Premier League	4-0	5-0	4	4	W
16/08	FK Sumqayit Azerbaijan Premier League	2-0	3-1	2	6	W
23/05	FK Kapaz Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
17/05	Sabah Azerbaijan Premier League	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
10/05	Shamakhi FK Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
05/05	FK Karvan Azerbaijan Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
30/04	FK Qarabag Azerbaijan Premier League	0-0	2-1	0	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Gabala vs Neftchi Baku?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Neftchi Baku win (63%). Probabilities: FK Gabala 13%, draw 24%, Neftchi Baku 63%.

How many goals are expected in FK Gabala vs Neftchi Baku?

The model expects 2.36 goals (FK Gabala 0.64 · Neftchi Baku 1.73), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Gabala vs Neftchi Baku?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.