Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 04/09, 19:30

Prediction: Independiente FBC vs Fernando de la Mora

Team pages: Independiente FBC · Fernando de la Mora

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Independiente FBC1.69

Fernando de la Mora1.47

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Independiente FBC Draw Fernando de la Mora

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente FBC 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLDDDWDL

Fernando de la Mora 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDDLWLD

Head-to-head

Independiente FBC 4–1–1 Fernando de la Mora (6 last)

Fernando de la Mora1-1Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC3-0Fernando de la Mora
Fernando de la Mora2-1Independiente FBC
Fernando de la Mora0-2Independiente FBC
Independiente FBC2-0Fernando de la Mora
Fernando de la Mora0-3Independiente FBC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente FBC 1515 · Fernando de la Mora 1543

	Independiente FBC	Draw	Fernando de la Mora
Our model	42%	26%	32%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Independiente FBC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente FBC	Fernando de la Mora
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.2	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +11’	2.15	3.30	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente FBC 4–1–1 Fernando de la Mora

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	1-1 HT 0-1	Independiente FBC
11/07/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	3-0 HT 1-0	Fernando de la Mora
05/04/25 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	2-1 HT 1-1	Independiente FBC
06/09/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	0-2 HT 0-1	Independiente FBC
31/05/24 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Independiente FBC	2-0 HT 2-0	Fernando de la Mora
24/08/23 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Fernando de la Mora	0-3 HT 0-0	Independiente FBC

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	21	13	4	4	31	19	43
2	General Caballero JLM	21	13	4	4	43	25	43
3	Deportivo Santaní	21	12	3	6	35	22	39
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	21	11	5	5	35	23	38
5	Sol de America	21	7	12	2	26	17	33
6	Club Atlético Tembetary	21	8	5	8	31	32	29
7	Resistencia FC	21	7	8	6	22	23	29
8	Carapegua	21	8	4	9	24	34	28
9	Independiente FBC	21	6	9	6	30	31	27
10	Guairena FC	21	6	6	9	19	24	24
11	Deportivo Capiata	21	5	9	7	25	28	24
12	Fernando de la Mora	21	6	6	9	23	31	24
13	Paraguari AC	21	6	5	10	22	27	23
14	Tacuary	21	3	10	8	24	33	19
15	3 de Noviembre	21	3	7	11	23	32	16
16	Encarnacion FC	21	4	3	14	19	31	15

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente FBC	Fernando de la Mora
3 de Noviembre	2-5 L	2-2 D
General Caballero JLM	0-0 D	3-2 W
Paraguari AC	2-3 L	2-2 D
Tacuary	2-2 D	1-1 D
Club Atlético Tembetary	2-2 D	1-2 L
Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Fernando de la Mora (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Independiente FBC

LDDLDDDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-3	2-5	7	4	L
22/08	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
15/08	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-1	7	9	W
07/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	7	5	D
02/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
29/07	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-3	1	7	L
13/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-2	7	2	D
08/07	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	2-2	2-2	6	6	D
30/06	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-2	5	2	L

Fernando de la Mora

WDDWDDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	5	7	D
22/08	Club Atlético Tembetary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-2	7	6	L
15/08	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/08	Carapegua Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
01/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
26/07	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
21/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/07	Paraguari AC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-2	5	4	D
03/07	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	2-2	5	9	D
27/06	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	3-2	1	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente FBC vs Fernando de la Mora?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Independiente FBC win (42%). Probabilities: Independiente FBC 42%, draw 26%, Fernando de la Mora 32%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente FBC vs Fernando de la Mora?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Independiente FBC 1.69 · Fernando de la Mora 1.47), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente FBC vs Fernando de la Mora?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.