Football · Paraguay Division Intermedia · 04/09, 21:30

Prediction: Carapegua vs Paraguari AC

Team pages: Carapegua · Paraguari AC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Carapegua1.33

Paraguari AC1.08

1X2

41% 29% 30%

Carapegua Draw Paraguari AC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Carapegua 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLWWLLW

Paraguari AC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLDWLWWDLW

Head-to-head

Carapegua 0–1 Paraguari AC (1 last)

Paraguari AC1-0Carapegua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Carapegua 1481 · Paraguari AC 1504

	Carapegua	Draw	Paraguari AC
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Carapegua	Paraguari AC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.5	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16 +3’	2.15	3.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Carapegua 0–0–1 Paraguari AC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Paraguari AC	1-0 HT 1-0	Carapegua

Standings · Paraguay Division Intermedia

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	21	13	4	4	31	19	43
2	General Caballero JLM	21	13	4	4	43	25	43
3	Deportivo Santaní	21	12	3	6	35	22	39
4	Club Dr Benjamin Aceval	21	11	5	5	35	23	38
5	Sol de America	21	7	12	2	26	17	33
6	Club Atlético Tembetary	21	8	5	8	31	32	29
7	Resistencia FC	21	7	8	6	22	23	29
8	Carapegua	21	8	4	9	24	34	28
9	Independiente FBC	21	6	9	6	30	31	27
10	Guairena FC	21	6	6	9	19	24	24
11	Deportivo Capiata	21	5	9	7	25	28	24
12	Fernando de la Mora	21	6	6	9	23	31	24
13	Paraguari AC	21	6	5	10	22	27	23
14	Tacuary	21	3	10	8	24	33	19
15	3 de Noviembre	21	3	7	11	23	32	16
16	Encarnacion FC	21	4	3	14	19	31	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Carapegua	Paraguari AC
12 de Junio de Villa Hayes	1-0 W	2-3 L
Encarnacion FC	1-3 L	1-0 W
Deportivo Santaní	0-2 L	0-2 L
Fernando de la Mora	2-0 W	2-2 D
3 de Noviembre	1-0 W	1-1 D
Resistencia FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Sol de America	1-1 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Capiata	2-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Carapegua

LDDWLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
23/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
09/08	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
03/08	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
26/07	General Caballero JLM Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-2	2	5	L
18/07	Guairena FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
10/07	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
05/07	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	4	0	D
27/06	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-2	2-5	1	2	L

Paraguari AC

DLDWLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Resistencia FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/08	12 de Junio de Villa Hayes Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-3	7	7	L
15/08	Sol de America Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
08/08	Encarnacion FC Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
04/08	Deportivo Capiata Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
25/07	Deportivo Santaní Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
18/07	Independiente FBC Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	3-2	6	7	W
10/07	Fernando de la Mora Paraguay Division Intermedia	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
03/07	Tacuary Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
28/06	3 de Noviembre Paraguay Division Intermedia	0-1	1-1	9	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Carapegua vs Paraguari AC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Carapegua win (41%). Probabilities: Carapegua 41%, draw 29%, Paraguari AC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Carapegua vs Paraguari AC?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Carapegua 1.33 · Paraguari AC 1.08), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Carapegua vs Paraguari AC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.