Football · Serbia Super Liga · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Belgrade

Team pages: OFK Beograd · IMT Novi Belgrade

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

OFK Beograd1.08

IMT Novi Belgrade1.03

1X2

36% 30% 33%

OFK Beograd Draw IMT Novi Belgrade

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

OFK Beograd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWDLW

IMT Novi Belgrade 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLDLW

Head-to-head

OFK Beograd 2–3–1 IMT Novi Belgrade (6 last)

OFK Beograd3-3IMT Novi Belgrade
IMT Novi Belgrade1-1OFK Beograd
IMT Novi Belgrade1-1OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd4-3IMT Novi Belgrade
IMT Novi Belgrade0-2OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd0-3IMT Novi Belgrade

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFK Beograd 1464 · IMT Novi Belgrade 1532

	OFK Beograd	Draw	IMT Novi Belgrade
Our model	35%	33%	32%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IMT Novi Belgrade (rating 1464 vs 1532).
H2H favours OFK Beograd: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFK Beograd	IMT Novi Belgrade
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.6	2.9 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:24 +2’	2.50	3.25	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFK Beograd 2–3–1 IMT Novi Belgrade

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	3-3 HT 1-0	IMT Novi Belgrade
25/10/25 Serbia Super Liga	IMT Novi Belgrade	1-1 HT 1-1	OFK Beograd
26/02/25 Serbia Super Liga	IMT Novi Belgrade	1-1 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd
28/09/24 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	4-3 HT 2-1	IMT Novi Belgrade
16/02/22 Club Friendly List	IMT Novi Belgrade	0-2 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd
23/03/19 Serbia Srpska Liga	OFK Beograd	0-3 HT 0-1	IMT Novi Belgrade

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	5	5	0	0	16	1	15
2	Vojvodina	7	5	0	2	15	6	15
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	FK Cukaricki	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
5	Mladost Lucani	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
6	FK Radnicki 1923	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
7	OFK Beograd	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	5	2	2	1	9	5	8
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	6	2	2	2	6	9	8
10	FK Novi Pazar	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	7	2	1	4	5	13	7
12	Radnicki Nis	6	1	2	3	3	6	5
13	Partizan Belgrade	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
14	FK Zemun	7	0	1	6	2	14	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFK Beograd	IMT Novi Belgrade
FK Zemun	1-0 W	4-0 W
FK Cukaricki	0-2 L	1-0 W
Partizan Belgrade	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: IMT Novi Belgrade (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFK Beograd

LDLWLDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
15/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-2	2	8	D
01/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	2-1	4-1	3	6	W
25/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
19/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-4	1	3	L
22/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
17/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
09/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
02/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L

IMT Novi Belgrade

DWDWWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
22/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
16/08	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
02/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
25/07	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	4-0	11	3	W
19/07	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
24/05	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/05	Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
10/05	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OFK Beograd win (36%). Probabilities: OFK Beograd 36%, draw 30%, IMT Novi Belgrade 33%.

How many goals are expected in OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

The model expects 2.11 goals (OFK Beograd 1.08 · IMT Novi Belgrade 1.03), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in OFK Beograd vs IMT Novi Belgrade?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.