Football · Serbia Super Liga · 17/09, 20:00

Prediction: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Crvena Zvezda

Team pages: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo · Crvena Zvezda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.74Total

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo0.74

Crvena Zvezda2

1X2

12% 21% 66%

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Draw Crvena Zvezda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDWDDLWLW

Crvena Zvezda 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 0–1–5 Crvena Zvezda (6 last)

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo2-2Crvena Zvezda
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo0-3Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda7-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1-3Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda2-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Crvena Zvezda3-0FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1488 · Crvena Zvezda 1565

	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	Draw	Crvena Zvezda
Our model	12%	22%	66%
Market	12%	21%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.74 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1488 vs 1565).
H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	Crvena Zvezda
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.7	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.50

X4.50

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.42 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +6’	7.50	4.50	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:45 +22’	6.08	4.47	1.42

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 0–1–5 Crvena Zvezda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	2-2 HT 2-1	Crvena Zvezda
14/02/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-3 HT 0-1	Crvena Zvezda
14/09/25 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	7-1 HT 4-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
26/02/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1-3 HT 1-2	Crvena Zvezda
27/09/24 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	2-1 HT 1-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
14/04/24 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	8	7	1	0	19	2	22
2	Vojvodina	9	7	0	2	20	9	21
3	FK Radnicki 1923	8	4	2	2	12	6	14
4	IMT Novi Belgrade	9	4	2	3	11	6	14
5	Mladost Lucani	9	3	4	2	8	11	13
6	FK Radnik Surdulica	9	3	4	2	10	11	13
7	FK Novi Pazar	9	3	3	3	8	9	12
8	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
9	FK Cukaricki	9	3	2	4	11	16	11
10	OFK Beograd	9	2	3	4	10	16	9
11	FK Macva Sabac	9	2	2	5	5	15	8
12	Radnicki Nis	8	2	2	4	6	8	8
13	Partizan Belgrade	8	2	1	5	13	15	7
14	FK Zemun	9	0	2	7	4	17	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	Crvena Zvezda
FK Macva Sabac	2-0 W	5-0 W
FK Novi Pazar	0-2 L	2-0 W
FK Radnik Surdulica	5-1 W	0-0 D
Vojvodina	0-1 L	3-1 W
OFK Beograd	2-2 D	1-2 L
FK Cukaricki	0-0 D	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

DDDWDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
04/09	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
29/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	5-1	6	6	W
23/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
09/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-2	4	8	D
03/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
17/07	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/05	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
17/05	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	1	2	D
09/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	6	7	D

Crvena Zvezda

DLWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
10/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
06/09	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-1	2	9	W
30/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W
08/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
26/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
17/07	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
22/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Crvena Zvezda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Crvena Zvezda win (66%). Probabilities: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 12%, draw 21%, Crvena Zvezda 66%.

How many goals are expected in FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Crvena Zvezda?

The model expects 2.74 goals (FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 0.74 · Crvena Zvezda 2), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Zeleznicar Pancevo vs Crvena Zvezda?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.