Football · Serbia Super Liga · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: Radnicki Nis vs OFK Beograd

Team pages: Radnicki Nis · OFK Beograd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

Radnicki Nis1.32

OFK Beograd1.03

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Radnicki Nis Draw OFK Beograd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Radnicki Nis 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLLWDLDL

OFK Beograd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWDLWL

Head-to-head

Radnicki Nis 3–1–2 OFK Beograd (6 last)

Radnicki Nis1-2OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd0-1Radnicki Nis
OFK Beograd2-0Radnicki Nis
Radnicki Nis1-1OFK Beograd
OFK Beograd0-2Radnicki Nis
Radnicki Nis1-0OFK Beograd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Radnicki Nis 1508 · OFK Beograd 1464

	Radnicki Nis	Draw	OFK Beograd
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Radnicki Nis (rating 1508 vs 1464).
H2H favours Radnicki Nis: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Radnicki Nis	OFK Beograd
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:34 +9’	2.15	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Radnicki Nis 3–1–2 OFK Beograd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	1-2 HT 0-1	OFK Beograd
03/11/25 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	0-1 HT 0-1	Radnicki Nis
02/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	2-0 HT 1-0	Radnicki Nis
04/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	1-1 HT 1-0	OFK Beograd
07/11/15 Serbia Super Liga	OFK Beograd	0-2 HT 0-0	Radnicki Nis
24/07/15 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	1-0 HT 0-0	OFK Beograd

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	6	6	0	0	18	2	18
2	Vojvodina	8	6	0	2	17	7	18
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	Mladost Lucani	8	3	4	1	8	6	13
5	FK Radnik Surdulica	7	3	2	2	9	10	11
6	FK Novi Pazar	8	3	2	3	7	8	11
7	FK Radnicki 1923	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
8	FK Cukaricki	8	3	1	4	10	15	10
9	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
10	OFK Beograd	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	8	2	2	4	5	13	8
12	Partizan Belgrade	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
13	Radnicki Nis	7	1	2	4	3	7	5
14	FK Zemun	8	0	1	7	3	16	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Radnicki Nis	OFK Beograd
FK Zemun	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Cukaricki	0-2 L	0-2 L
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: OFK Beograd (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Radnicki Nis

WWWLLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
29/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
22/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
16/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
02/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
25/07	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
17/07	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
24/05	Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
10/05	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

OFK Beograd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-3	1	4	L
22/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
15/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	6	4	L
09/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-2	2-2	2	8	D
01/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	2-1	4-1	3	6	W
25/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
19/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-4	1	3	L
22/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
17/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
09/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	1	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Radnicki Nis vs OFK Beograd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Radnicki Nis win (43%). Probabilities: Radnicki Nis 43%, draw 29%, OFK Beograd 28%.

How many goals are expected in Radnicki Nis vs OFK Beograd?

The model expects 2.34 goals (Radnicki Nis 1.32 · OFK Beograd 1.03), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Radnicki Nis vs OFK Beograd?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.