Football · Serbia Super Liga · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: FK Cukaricki vs FK Novi Pazar

Team pages: FK Cukaricki · FK Novi Pazar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

FK Cukaricki1.31

FK Novi Pazar1.13

1X2

40% 28% 32%

FK Cukaricki Draw FK Novi Pazar

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Cukaricki 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDWLLL

FK Novi Pazar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLWLDW

Head-to-head

FK Cukaricki 1–5–0 FK Novi Pazar (6 last)

FK Novi Pazar2-2FK Cukaricki
FK Novi Pazar1-1FK Cukaricki
FK Cukaricki1-1FK Novi Pazar
FK Cukaricki1-1FK Novi Pazar
FK Novi Pazar2-2FK Cukaricki
FK Cukaricki2-0FK Novi Pazar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Cukaricki 1488 · FK Novi Pazar 1478

	FK Cukaricki	Draw	FK Novi Pazar
Our model	39%	30%	31%
Market	40%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Cukaricki	FK Novi Pazar
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:39 +5’	2.30	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Cukaricki 1–5–0 FK Novi Pazar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	2-2 HT 1-1	FK Cukaricki
15/03/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	1-1 HT 1-1	FK Cukaricki
19/10/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Cukaricki	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Novi Pazar
17/02/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Cukaricki	1-1 HT 1-0	FK Novi Pazar
15/09/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	2-2 HT 2-1	FK Cukaricki
29/03/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Cukaricki	2-0 HT 0-0	FK Novi Pazar

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	6	6	0	0	18	2	18
2	Vojvodina	8	6	0	2	17	7	18
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	Mladost Lucani	8	3	4	1	8	6	13
5	FK Radnik Surdulica	7	3	2	2	9	10	11
6	FK Novi Pazar	8	3	2	3	7	8	11
7	FK Radnicki 1923	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
8	FK Cukaricki	8	3	1	4	10	15	10
9	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
10	OFK Beograd	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	8	2	2	4	5	13	8
12	Partizan Belgrade	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
13	Radnicki Nis	7	1	2	4	3	7	5
14	FK Zemun	8	0	1	7	3	16	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Cukaricki	FK Novi Pazar
FK Radnik Surdulica	1-3 L	0-1 L
Vojvodina	0-5 L	2-0 W
Crvena Zvezda	0-4 L	0-2 L
OFK Beograd	2-0 W	1-4 L
Mladost Lucani	2-2 D	0-0 D
FK Radnicki 1923	3-0 W	1-0 W
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Novi Pazar (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Cukaricki

DDLWWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-3	1-3	6	6	L
29/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-5	12	4	L
23/08	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-4	2	3	L
15/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
09/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
01/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	3-0	3-0	1	5	W
25/07	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
19/07	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	2	8	L
22/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
17/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

FK Novi Pazar

DLWDLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	3	7	W
29/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
23/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
17/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
08/08	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
01/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
26/07	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/07	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
23/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
17/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	4	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Cukaricki vs FK Novi Pazar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Cukaricki win (40%). Probabilities: FK Cukaricki 40%, draw 28%, FK Novi Pazar 32%.

How many goals are expected in FK Cukaricki vs FK Novi Pazar?

The model expects 2.44 goals (FK Cukaricki 1.31 · FK Novi Pazar 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Cukaricki vs FK Novi Pazar?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.