Football · Serbia Super Liga · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki Nis

Team pages: Mladost Lucani · Radnicki Nis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

Mladost Lucani1.12

Radnicki Nis1.01

1X2

38% 31% 32%

Mladost Lucani Draw Radnicki Nis

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Mladost Lucani 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDDWWL

Radnicki Nis 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLWDLD

Head-to-head

Mladost Lucani 1–2–3 Radnicki Nis (6 last)

Radnicki Nis1-0Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani2-1Radnicki Nis
Radnicki Nis3-1Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani1-1Radnicki Nis
Radnicki Nis1-1Mladost Lucani
Radnicki Nis3-0Mladost Lucani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mladost Lucani 1562 · Radnicki Nis 1510

	Mladost Lucani	Draw	Radnicki Nis
Our model	37%	32%	31%
Market	38%	29%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mladost Lucani (rating 1562 vs 1510).
H2H favours Radnicki Nis: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mladost Lucani	Radnicki Nis
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 2.8	1.7 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.20

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.75

2 (0)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:21 +5’	2.45	3.20	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mladost Lucani 1–2–3 Radnicki Nis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	1-0 HT 0-0	Mladost Lucani
29/11/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	2-1 HT 1-0	Radnicki Nis
26/07/25 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	3-1 HT 1-0	Mladost Lucani
16/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	Mladost Lucani	1-1 HT 1-0	Radnicki Nis
27/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	1-1 HT 1-0	Mladost Lucani
30/03/24 Serbia Super Liga	Radnicki Nis	3-0 HT 1-0	Mladost Lucani

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	5	5	0	0	16	1	15
2	Vojvodina	7	5	0	2	15	6	15
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	FK Cukaricki	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
5	Mladost Lucani	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
6	FK Radnicki 1923	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
7	OFK Beograd	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	5	2	2	1	9	5	8
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	6	2	2	2	6	9	8
10	FK Novi Pazar	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	7	2	1	4	5	13	7
12	Radnicki Nis	6	1	2	3	3	6	5
13	Partizan Belgrade	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
14	FK Zemun	7	0	1	6	2	14	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mladost Lucani	Radnicki Nis
IMT Novi Belgrade	0-2 L	0-0 D
FK Zemun	1-0 W	1-0 W
FK Cukaricki	2-2 D	0-2 L
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-0 D	1-2 L
FK Napredak	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Mladost Lucani (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mladost Lucani

LWWDDDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
23/08	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-0	3-1	0	3	W
16/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
09/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	10	7	D
03/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	0	4	D
26/07	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
19/07	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
24/05	FK Napredak Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	0	W
16/05	Javor Ivanjica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	4-2	4	4	W
10/05	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	1	4	L

Radnicki Nis

WWWWLLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	1	8	D
22/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
16/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
02/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	7	7	W
25/07	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
17/07	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
24/05	Spartak Subotica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	FK Backa Topola Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
10/05	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
03/05	FK Napredak Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki Nis?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mladost Lucani win (38%). Probabilities: Mladost Lucani 38%, draw 31%, Radnicki Nis 32%.

How many goals are expected in Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki Nis?

The model expects 2.13 goals (Mladost Lucani 1.12 · Radnicki Nis 1.01), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mladost Lucani vs Radnicki Nis?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.