Football · Serbia Super Liga · 10/09, 19:00

Prediction: FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda

Team pages: FK Radnik Surdulica · Crvena Zvezda

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

FK Radnik Surdulica0.68

Crvena Zvezda2.31

1X2

9% 17% 74%

FK Radnik Surdulica Draw Crvena Zvezda

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Radnik Surdulica 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDLWWLW

Crvena Zvezda 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

FK Radnik Surdulica 0–2–4 Crvena Zvezda (6 last)

FK Radnik Surdulica0-0Crvena Zvezda
FK Radnik Surdulica1-2Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda1-1FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica0-2Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda3-1FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnik Surdulica1-2Crvena Zvezda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Radnik Surdulica 1501 · Crvena Zvezda 1595

	FK Radnik Surdulica	Draw	Crvena Zvezda
Our model	9%	18%	73%
Market	9%	17%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1501 vs 1595).
H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Radnik Surdulica	Crvena Zvezda
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.6	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 3.3	2.6 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

110.00

X5.50

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.93

2 (-1.75)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +4’	10.00	5.50	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Radnik Surdulica 0–2–4 Crvena Zvezda

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	0-0 HT 0-0	Crvena Zvezda
05/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-2 HT 1-2	Crvena Zvezda
02/11/25 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
07/04/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	0-2 HT 0-0	Crvena Zvezda
04/11/23 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Radnik Surdulica
13/11/22 Serbia Super Liga	FK Radnik Surdulica	1-2 HT 0-1	Crvena Zvezda

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	6	6	0	0	18	2	18
2	Vojvodina	8	6	0	2	17	7	18
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	Mladost Lucani	8	3	4	1	8	6	13
5	FK Radnik Surdulica	7	3	2	2	9	10	11
6	FK Novi Pazar	8	3	2	3	7	8	11
7	FK Radnicki 1923	7	3	2	2	7	6	11
8	FK Cukaricki	8	3	1	4	10	15	10
9	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	6	2	2	2	9	7	8
10	OFK Beograd	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	8	2	2	4	5	13	8
12	Partizan Belgrade	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
13	Radnicki Nis	7	1	2	4	3	7	5
14	FK Zemun	8	0	1	7	3	16	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Radnik Surdulica	Crvena Zvezda
FK Cukaricki	3-1 W	4-0 W
FK Novi Pazar	1-0 W	2-0 W
FK Macva Sabac	2-1 W	5-0 W
Vojvodina	1-2 L	3-1 W
OFK Beograd	0-0 D	1-2 L
Partizan Belgrade	0-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Radnik Surdulica

DDLDDLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	3-0	3-1	6	6	W
29/08	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-5	1	6	L
23/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	7	8	W
15/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
09/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
25/07	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
19/07	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
23/05	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-5	1	1	L
17/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
09/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-1	0	7	D

Crvena Zvezda

WLDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-1	2	9	W
30/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W
08/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
26/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
17/07	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
22/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/05	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
04/05	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Crvena Zvezda win (74%). Probabilities: FK Radnik Surdulica 9%, draw 17%, Crvena Zvezda 74%.

How many goals are expected in FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?

The model expects 2.99 goals (FK Radnik Surdulica 0.68 · Crvena Zvezda 2.31), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Radnik Surdulica vs Crvena Zvezda?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.