Football · Serbia Super Liga · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: FK Novi Pazar vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Team pages: FK Novi Pazar · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.13Total

FK Novi Pazar1.09

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo1.04

1X2

36% 30% 34%

FK Novi Pazar Draw FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Novi Pazar 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLLWLD

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWDDLW

Head-to-head

FK Novi Pazar 3–1–2 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (6 last)

FK Novi Pazar2-2FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo2-0FK Novi Pazar
FK Novi Pazar1-0FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Novi Pazar3-1FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo0-1FK Novi Pazar
FK Zeleznicar Pancevo3-1FK Novi Pazar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Novi Pazar 1448 · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1505

	FK Novi Pazar	Draw	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Our model	35%	32%	32%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (rating 1448 vs 1505).
H2H favours FK Novi Pazar: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Novi Pazar	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.9 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +8’	2.50	3.30	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Novi Pazar 3–1–2 FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	2-2 HT 1-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
04/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Novi Pazar
02/11/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
17/03/25 Serbia Super Liga	FK Novi Pazar	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
26/10/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Novi Pazar
18/05/24 Serbia Super Liga	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	3-1 HT 1-1	FK Novi Pazar

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	5	5	0	0	16	1	15
2	Vojvodina	7	5	0	2	15	6	15
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	FK Cukaricki	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
5	Mladost Lucani	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
6	FK Radnicki 1923	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
7	OFK Beograd	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	5	2	2	1	9	5	8
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	6	2	2	2	6	9	8
10	FK Novi Pazar	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	7	2	1	4	5	13	7
12	Radnicki Nis	6	1	2	3	3	6	5
13	Partizan Belgrade	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
14	FK Zemun	7	0	1	6	2	14	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Novi Pazar	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo
FK Radnik Surdulica	0-1 L	5-1 W
Vojvodina	2-0 W	0-1 L
OFK Beograd	1-4 L	2-2 D
Mladost Lucani	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Zeleznicar Pancevo (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Novi Pazar

WDLWDLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
23/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
17/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
08/08	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
01/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-2	1-4	4	6	L
26/07	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
18/07	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
23/05	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-2	0-3	1	4	L
17/05	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
09/05	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-1	3	6	W

FK Zeleznicar Pancevo

DWDDDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	5-1	6	6	W
23/08	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
09/08	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-2	4	8	D
03/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
17/07	Radnicki Nis Serbia Super Liga	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
22/05	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	10	1	D
17/05	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-1	2-2	1	2	D
09/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-1	6	7	D
02/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
26/04	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Novi Pazar vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Novi Pazar win (36%). Probabilities: FK Novi Pazar 36%, draw 30%, FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 34%.

How many goals are expected in FK Novi Pazar vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?

The model expects 2.13 goals (FK Novi Pazar 1.09 · FK Zeleznicar Pancevo 1.04), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Novi Pazar vs FK Zeleznicar Pancevo?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.