Football · Serbia Super Liga · 05/09, 18:00

Prediction: Crvena Zvezda vs Partizan Belgrade

Team pages: Crvena Zvezda · Partizan Belgrade

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Crvena Zvezda2.44

Partizan Belgrade0.86

1X2

72% 17% 11%

Crvena Zvezda Draw Partizan Belgrade

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Crvena Zvezda 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWWWW

Partizan Belgrade 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDWDWLLL

Head-to-head

Crvena Zvezda 5–1–0 Partizan Belgrade (6 last)

Crvena Zvezda3-0Partizan Belgrade
Crvena Zvezda3-0Partizan Belgrade
Partizan Belgrade1-2Crvena Zvezda
Crvena Zvezda2-1Partizan Belgrade
Crvena Zvezda3-3Partizan Belgrade
Partizan Belgrade0-4Crvena Zvezda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Crvena Zvezda 1575 · Partizan Belgrade 1527

	Crvena Zvezda	Draw	Partizan Belgrade
Our model	71%	18%	10%
Market	72%	17%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Crvena Zvezda (rating 1575 vs 1527).
H2H favours Crvena Zvezda: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Crvena Zvezda	Partizan Belgrade
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.6	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +5’	1.30	5.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Crvena Zvezda 5–1–0 Partizan Belgrade

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	3-0 HT 1-0	Partizan Belgrade
22/02/26 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	3-0 HT 1-0	Partizan Belgrade
20/09/25 Serbia Super Liga	Partizan Belgrade	1-2 HT 0-1	Crvena Zvezda
12/04/25 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	2-1 HT 0-1	Partizan Belgrade
22/02/25 Serbia Super Liga	Crvena Zvezda	3-3 HT 0-1	Partizan Belgrade
23/09/24 Serbia Super Liga	Partizan Belgrade	0-4 HT 0-2	Crvena Zvezda

Standings · Serbia Super Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Crvena Zvezda	5	5	0	0	16	1	15
2	Vojvodina	7	5	0	2	15	6	15
3	IMT Novi Belgrade	7	4	1	2	10	4	13
4	FK Cukaricki	7	3	1	3	9	12	10
5	Mladost Lucani	7	2	4	1	7	6	10
6	FK Radnicki 1923	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
7	OFK Beograd	6	2	2	2	7	9	8
8	FK Zeleznicar Pancevo	5	2	2	1	9	5	8
9	FK Radnik Surdulica	6	2	2	2	6	9	8
10	FK Novi Pazar	7	2	2	3	5	8	8
11	FK Macva Sabac	7	2	1	4	5	13	7
12	Radnicki Nis	6	1	2	3	3	6	5
13	Partizan Belgrade	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
14	FK Zemun	7	0	1	6	2	14	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Crvena Zvezda	Partizan Belgrade
FK Zemun	2-0 W	2-2 D
FK Cukaricki	4-0 W	0-0 D
FK Novi Pazar	2-0 W	2-1 W
FK Macva Sabac	5-0 W	3-1 W
OFK Beograd	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Radnik Surdulica	0-0 D	5-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Crvena Zvezda (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Crvena Zvezda

WWLDLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	0-0	2-0	5	6	W
23/08	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	1-0	4-0	3	3	W
08/08	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
26/07	Vojvodina Serbia Super Liga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
17/07	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	3-0	5-0	9	2	W
22/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	0-1	1-2	12	1	L
17/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/05	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
04/05	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	2-1	2-1	5	4	W
26/04	Partizan Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-0	5	6	W

Partizan Belgrade

LWDDWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Mladost Lucani Serbia Super Liga	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
16/08	FK Radnicki 1923 Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-1	11	5	L
02/08	IMT Novi Belgrade Serbia Super Liga	0-0	1-2	6	5	L
26/07	FK Macva Sabac Serbia Super Liga	1-0	3-1	3	12	W
18/07	FK Zemun Serbia Super Liga	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
23/05	FK Radnik Surdulica Serbia Super Liga	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
17/05	FK Cukaricki Serbia Super Liga	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
09/05	OFK Beograd Serbia Super Liga	1-1	1-1	9	7	D
02/05	FK Novi Pazar Serbia Super Liga	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
26/04	Crvena Zvezda Serbia Super Liga	0-1	0-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Crvena Zvezda vs Partizan Belgrade?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Crvena Zvezda win (72%). Probabilities: Crvena Zvezda 72%, draw 17%, Partizan Belgrade 11%.

How many goals are expected in Crvena Zvezda vs Partizan Belgrade?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Crvena Zvezda 2.44 · Partizan Belgrade 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Crvena Zvezda vs Partizan Belgrade?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.