Football · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: Zvijezda 09 vs Slavija Sarajevo

Team pages: Zvijezda 09 · Slavija Sarajevo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Zvijezda 091.28

Slavija Sarajevo1.72

1X2

27% 26% 47%

Zvijezda 09 Draw Slavija Sarajevo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Zvijezda 09 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLLLL

Slavija Sarajevo 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLDLD

Head-to-head

Zvijezda 09 2–3–1 Slavija Sarajevo (6 last)

Zvijezda 090-2Slavija Sarajevo
Slavija Sarajevo2-3Zvijezda 09
Slavija Sarajevo1-1Zvijezda 09
Zvijezda 092-1Slavija Sarajevo
Zvijezda 092-2Slavija Sarajevo
Slavija Sarajevo1-1Zvijezda 09

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Zvijezda 09 1419 · Slavija Sarajevo 1478

	Zvijezda 09	Draw	Slavija Sarajevo
Our model	27%	26%	47%
Market	28%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Slavija Sarajevo (rating 1419 vs 1478).
H2H favours Zvijezda 09: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Zvijezda 09	Slavija Sarajevo
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.60▲	Bet365 3.60
2	1.91 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
06:53 +46’	3.25	3.50	1.91
10:13 +13’	3.50▲	3.60▲	1.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Zvijezda 09 2–3–1 Slavija Sarajevo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Zvijezda 09	0-2 HT 0-0	Slavija Sarajevo
16/08/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Slavija Sarajevo	2-3 HT 2-1	Zvijezda 09
22/03/25 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Slavija Sarajevo	1-1	Zvijezda 09
31/08/24 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Zvijezda 09	2-1 HT 1-1	Slavija Sarajevo
24/05/23 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Zvijezda 09	2-2 HT 2-1	Slavija Sarajevo
22/10/22 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	Slavija Sarajevo	1-1 HT 0-0	Zvijezda 09

Standings · Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Laktasi	7	6	1	0	19	4	19
2	Leotar	6	5	1	0	16	3	16
3	FK Potkozarje	7	4	1	2	8	7	13
4	FK Majevica Lopare	7	3	3	1	12	5	12
5	FK Kozara Gradiska	7	3	3	1	6	4	12
6	FK Drina Zvornik	7	3	2	2	16	6	11
7	Romanija Pale	7	3	0	4	9	14	9
8	FK Rudar Prijedor	7	2	2	3	8	11	8
9	FC Velez Nevesinje	7	2	2	3	6	14	8
10	Sutjeska Foca	6	2	1	3	4	7	7
11	FK Famos Vojkovici	7	2	0	5	6	12	6
11	Slavija Sarajevo	7	1	3	3	6	12	6
13	FK Omarska	7	1	1	5	4	9	4
14	Zvijezda 09	7	1	0	6	6	18	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Zvijezda 09	Slavija Sarajevo
FC Velez Nevesinje	1-2 L	1-1 D
FK Laktasi	0-3 L	1-4 L
FK Omarska	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Slavija Sarajevo (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Zvijezda 09

DLWLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	FC Velez Nevesinje Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	1-2	–	–	L
19/09	Leotar Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-2	1-4	2	1	L
11/09	Romanija Pale Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
05/09	FK Majevica Lopare Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-0	1-4	1	5	L
02/09	FK Potkozarje Aleksandrovac Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	FK Famos Vojkovici Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	1-0	–	–	W
22/08	FK Laktasi Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-0	0-3	6	4	L
03/06	FK Vlasenica Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	2-0	4-1	5	2	W
30/05	FK Omarska Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-1	0-2	10	7	L
27/05	FK Famos Vojkovici Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-0	0-0	3	5	D

Slavija Sarajevo

WLLDLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	FK Kozara Gradiska Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
20/09	FK Omarska Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
12/09	FK Rudar Prijedor Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	2-2	–	–	D
05/09	FK Drina Zvornik Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
02/09	Sutjeska Foca Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
29/08	FK Laktasi Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	FC Velez Nevesinje Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/05	FK Laktasi Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	0-3	1-3	8	1	L
20/05	FK Drina Zvornik Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
16/05	FK Kozara Gradiska Bosnia & Herzegovina 1st League	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Zvijezda 09 vs Slavija Sarajevo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Slavija Sarajevo win (47%). Probabilities: Zvijezda 09 27%, draw 26%, Slavija Sarajevo 47%.

How many goals are expected in Zvijezda 09 vs Slavija Sarajevo?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Zvijezda 09 1.28 · Slavija Sarajevo 1.72), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Zvijezda 09 vs Slavija Sarajevo?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.