Football · Greece Super League 1 · 06/09, 20:30

Prediction: Panathinaikos vs PAOK Salonika

Team pages: Panathinaikos · PAOK Salonika

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Panathinaikos1.35

PAOK Salonika1.2

1X2

39% 29% 32%

Panathinaikos Draw PAOK Salonika

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Panathinaikos 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWDLDLLDW

PAOK Salonika 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDDDWW

Head-to-head

Panathinaikos 1–2–3 PAOK Salonika (6 last)

Panathinaikos2-2PAOK Salonika
PAOK Salonika0-0Panathinaikos
PAOK Salonika2-0Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos0-1PAOK Salonika
PAOK Salonika2-0Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos2-1PAOK Salonika

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Panathinaikos 1549 · PAOK Salonika 1547

	Panathinaikos	Draw	PAOK Salonika
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	39%	29%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PAOK Salonika: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Panathinaikos	PAOK Salonika
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.25

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Pinn 2.51 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.26
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:53 +13’	2.38	3.25	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:06	2.44	3.26	2.96
22:07	2.51▲	3.26	2.86▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Panathinaikos 1–2–3 PAOK Salonika

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Greece Super League 1	Panathinaikos	2-2 HT 0-2	PAOK Salonika
05/04/26 Greece Super League 1	PAOK Salonika	0-0 HT 0-0	Panathinaikos
11/02/26 Greece Cup	PAOK Salonika	2-0 HT 0-0	Panathinaikos
04/02/26 Greece Cup	Panathinaikos	0-1 HT 0-0	PAOK Salonika
21/12/25 Greece Super League 1	PAOK Salonika	2-0 HT 1-0	Panathinaikos
09/11/25 Greece Super League 1	Panathinaikos	2-1 HT 2-0	PAOK Salonika

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PAOK Salonika	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
2	Panetolikos	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Aris Salonika	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
4	Olympiacos	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
5	AEK Athens	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
6	Panathinaikos	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
7	OFI Crete	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
8	Volos NFC	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
9	Iraklis 1908 FC	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
10	Kifisias FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
11	Atromitos Athinon	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
12	Kalamata	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
13	Asteras Tripolis	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	Levadiakos	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Panathinaikos	PAOK Salonika
Levadiakos	2-0 W	4-0 W
Olympiacos	0-1 L	1-1 D
AEK Athens	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: PAOK Salonika (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Panathinaikos

WDWDLDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
17/05	PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-2	2-2	10	4	D
13/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-1	0	3	L
10/05	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-2	1	7	L
03/05	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
19/04	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-2	0-2	3	8	L
05/04	PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
22/03	Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
15/03	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
08/03	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	2-0	4-1	3	5	W

PAOK Salonika

WLDLWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
23/08	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	2-0	4-0	3	0	W
17/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
13/05	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
10/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
03/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/04	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/04	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/03	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
15/03	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	1-0	3-0	9	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Panathinaikos vs PAOK Salonika?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Panathinaikos win (39%). Probabilities: Panathinaikos 39%, draw 29%, PAOK Salonika 32%.

How many goals are expected in Panathinaikos vs PAOK Salonika?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Panathinaikos 1.35 · PAOK Salonika 1.2), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs PAOK Salonika?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.