Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 20/09, 17:30

Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warsaw

Team pages: Jagiellonia Bialystok · Legia Warsaw

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Jagiellonia Bialystok1.51

Legia Warsaw1.2

1X2

43% 28% 29%

Jagiellonia Bialystok Draw Legia Warsaw

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Jagiellonia Bialystok 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWLWL

Legia Warsaw 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDWDDW

Head-to-head

Jagiellonia Bialystok 1–3–2 Legia Warsaw (6 last)

Jagiellonia Bialystok2-2Legia Warsaw
Legia Warsaw0-0Jagiellonia Bialystok
Legia Warsaw0-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Legia Warsaw3-1Jagiellonia Bialystok
Jagiellonia Bialystok1-1Legia Warsaw
Legia Warsaw2-0Jagiellonia Bialystok

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Legia Warsaw: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Legia Warsaw
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.94

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:23

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.72▲	Pinn 2.72
X	3.42 → 3.43▲	Pinn 3.43
2	2.55 → 2.52▼	Pinn 2.52

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:46 +341’	2.70	3.42	2.55
01:12 +11’	2.72▲	3.43▲	2.52▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jagiellonia Bialystok 1–3–2 Legia Warsaw

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	2-2 HT 2-1	Legia Warsaw
24/09/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Legia Warsaw	0-0 HT 0-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok
13/04/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Legia Warsaw	0-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
26/02/25 Poland Cup	Legia Warsaw	3-1 HT 0-1	Jagiellonia Bialystok
06/10/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Jagiellonia Bialystok	1-1 HT 1-0	Legia Warsaw
06/07/24 Europe Friendlies	Legia Warsaw	2-0 HT 1-0	Jagiellonia Bialystok

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	7	6	0	1	14	8	18
2	Lech Poznan	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
3	Legia Warsaw	7	4	3	0	15	6	15
4	Wisla Krakow	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
5	Pogon Szczecin	7	3	3	1	10	5	12
6	Korona Kielce	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
7	Zaglebie Lubin	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
8	Jagiellonia Bialystok	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
9	Piast Gliwice	7	3	1	3	13	13	10
10	GKS Katowice	7	3	0	4	13	11	9
11	Cracovia Krakow	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
12	Wisla Plock	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
13	Radomiak Radom	7	2	2	3	6	13	8
14	Widzew Lodz	7	1	4	2	10	10	7
15	Slask Wroclaw	8	1	3	4	10	13	6
16	Motor Lublin	8	1	2	5	9	15	5
17	Wieczysta Krakow	7	1	1	5	9	15	4
18	Rakow Czestochowa	7	1	0	6	8	15	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jagiellonia Bialystok	Legia Warsaw
Slask Wroclaw	2-1 W	1-1 D
Motor Lublin	2-1 W	3-2 W
Korona Kielce	1-0 W	1-1 D
Zaglebie Lubin	1-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Jagiellonia Bialystok (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jagiellonia Bialystok

WDWWWLWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	0-2	0	1	L
06/09	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	2	W
03/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
30/08	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-1	5-2	6	2	W
09/08	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	8	7	L
31/07	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
25/07	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
23/05	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
17/05	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	2-2	9	4	D
13/05	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-0	4	5	W

Legia Warsaw

WWWWWDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
28/08	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-1	9	3	D
22/08	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
14/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	4-0	5-0	3	3	W
08/08	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-1	0	2	D
02/08	Zaglebie Lubin Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-1	9	0	W
24/07	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
23/05	Motor Lublin Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	4-0	5	3	W
17/05	Lechia Gdansk Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	5	7	W
10/05	Termalica BB Nieciecza Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	1-0	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warsaw?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jagiellonia Bialystok win (43%). Probabilities: Jagiellonia Bialystok 43%, draw 28%, Legia Warsaw 29%.

How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warsaw?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok 1.51 · Legia Warsaw 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Legia Warsaw?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.