Football · Poland Ekstraklasa · 19/09, 20:15

Prediction: Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze

Team pages: Motor Lublin · Gornik Zabrze

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Motor Lublin1.3

Gornik Zabrze1.78

1X2

27% 26% 48%

Motor Lublin Draw Gornik Zabrze

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Motor Lublin 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DLDLLWDLLL

Gornik Zabrze 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Motor Lublin 2–1–1 Gornik Zabrze (4 last)

Motor Lublin0-0Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze0-1Motor Lublin
Gornik Zabrze4-0Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin1-0Gornik Zabrze

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motor Lublin 1474 · Gornik Zabrze 1543

	Motor Lublin	Draw	Gornik Zabrze
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gornik Zabrze (rating 1474 vs 1543).
H2H favours Motor Lublin: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motor Lublin	Gornik Zabrze
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	2.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +18’	3.50	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motor Lublin 2–1–1 Gornik Zabrze

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Poland Ekstraklasa	Motor Lublin	0-0 HT 0-0	Gornik Zabrze
30/08/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	0-1 HT 0-0	Motor Lublin
15/03/25 Poland Ekstraklasa	Gornik Zabrze	4-0 HT 1-0	Motor Lublin
13/09/24 Poland Ekstraklasa	Motor Lublin	1-0 HT 0-0	Gornik Zabrze

Standings · Poland Ekstraklasa

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gornik Zabrze	7	6	0	1	14	8	18
2	Legia Warsaw	8	4	4	0	16	7	16
3	Lech Poznan	7	5	1	1	12	6	16
4	Wisla Krakow	8	4	2	2	15	11	14
5	Piast Gliwice	8	4	1	3	15	13	13
6	Pogon Szczecin	7	3	3	1	10	5	12
7	Korona Kielce	7	3	3	1	9	6	12
8	Zaglebie Lubin	7	3	3	1	8	6	12
9	Jagiellonia Bialystok	7	4	0	3	11	10	12
10	GKS Katowice	7	3	0	4	13	11	9
11	Widzew Lodz	8	1	5	2	11	11	8
12	Cracovia Krakow	8	2	2	4	7	11	8
13	Wisla Plock	7	2	2	3	7	12	8
14	Radomiak Radom	8	2	2	4	6	15	8
15	Slask Wroclaw	8	1	3	4	10	13	6
16	Motor Lublin	8	1	2	5	9	15	5
17	Wieczysta Krakow	7	1	1	5	9	15	4
18	Rakow Czestochowa	7	1	0	6	8	15	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motor Lublin	Gornik Zabrze
Rakow Czestochowa	1-2 L	2-1 W
GKS Katowice	1-0 W	2-3 L
Cracovia Krakow	3-3 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gornik Zabrze (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motor Lublin

DLDLLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-2	4	2	L
05/09	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-3	5	4	L
29/08	Piast Gliwice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-2	5	1	L
22/08	Korona Kielce Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
16/08	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
08/08	Pogon Szczecin Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	1-3	4	3	L
31/07	Jagiellonia Bialystok Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/07	Widzew Lodz Poland Ekstraklasa	1-2	2-2	5	5	D
23/05	Legia Warsaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-2	0-4	3	3	L
16/05	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-1	3-3	2	7	D

Gornik Zabrze

DWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Lech Poznan Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
06/09	Cracovia Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	3	4	W
03/09	Rakow Czestochowa Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	2-1	4	3	W
30/08	GKS Katowice Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-3	13	1	L
16/08	Wisla Krakow Poland Ekstraklasa	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
08/08	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
25/07	Slask Wroclaw Poland Ekstraklasa	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
23/05	Radomiak Radom Poland Ekstraklasa	5-0	6-2	6	5	W
16/05	Wisla Plock Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
13/05	Arka Gdynia Poland Ekstraklasa	0-0	0-0	9	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gornik Zabrze win (48%). Probabilities: Motor Lublin 27%, draw 26%, Gornik Zabrze 48%.

How many goals are expected in Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Motor Lublin 1.3 · Gornik Zabrze 1.78), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Motor Lublin vs Gornik Zabrze?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.